Waratahs face uphill battle in Johannesburg
Well, I’m glad I watched both halves of the Waratahs versus Highlanders Super Rugby quarter-final last Saturday in Sydney.
I was tempted to switch it off at halftime. With the Highlanders dominating I was fully expecting the score to kick on. I would have bet my house on the Highlanders winning by a big margin. Their forward pack was dominating and Lima Sopoaga was running the whole show. Kurtley Beale was on the field but was not sighted in the first half and Israel Folau was making error after error. The Highlanders led at half time 23-6 with the Waratahs ending up winning 30-23.
The Highlanders play a very similar game to the Waratahs. It is up-tempo, using the width of the field with Lima Sopoaga and Kurtley Beale having similar styles of play, drawing defenders with their ability to put runners away with crisp passing on inside and outside lines. The Highlanders forwards were getting on top in the first half as well, especially with their counter-rucking. Set pieces were pretty even with both sides dropping a few throws in the lineout.
So the half-time whistle goes and a new Waratahs team trots out. Kurtley Beale has the ball on a string again and is making big line breaks, Israel Folau is making no errors and finishing like a runaway train, and Bernard Foley is in on the show as well combining well with Beale and Folau to score two tries. The Waratahs forward pack look more enthusiastic supporting the ball carrier in the tackle and stopping the Highlanders’ effective first half counter-rucking.
I have no idea why the Highlanders did not come out and play in the second half but they have missed the plane to Johannesburg for the semi-final against the Lions and the Tahs have happily climbed on board. The Lions are set to host the Waratahs at Emirates Airline Park, Johannesburg this Saturday 28th July.
My prediction for the weekend will be a Lions victory, though I am hoping for some more Tahs magic like we saw in the second half against the Highlanders. Unfortunately, even before the Tahs get on the field they have to overcome the huge time and distance in travel. The altitude is also a massive factor and of course when they actually run on the field they have to face a very good Lions team, who are well rested and playing at home.
I have done the Johannesburg run many a time with Queensland and the Wallabies. It’s a nightmare trip, especially when the planes could not go directly from Sydney to Johannesburg and you had to refuel in Perth. The Waratahs would have hopped on a 14-hour direct flight on Sunday and you can imagine the scenes after their last Super Rugby match; everyone is wearing ice packs, it is a like a hospital ward, the physios find some clear floor space and they work the full trip treating players.
The Tahs would arrive in Johannesburg exhausted, bashed up and ready to sleep for 24 hours, but no, they have a Super Rugby semi-final in five and half days. The Lions meanwhile are at home doing their resting and team rehab and are already one to two days in front with their preparation. The Tahs would have still not seen the Lions match on video by the time they arrived in South Africa.
The joys of playing at altitude, in 1992 after the Wallabies played Western Transvaal in the lovely resort town of Potchefstroom; my description of playing at altitude was widely reported in the Australian press. I played the full 80 minutes and since we were the first Wallaby team to play at altitude since 1969 our press contingent was super keen for some quotes. I stated, “it was like trying to play rugby with a plastic bag over your head, you simply can’t breathe especially in the last 20 minutes.” It was a weird experience like running around with a bad case of bronchitis. The lovely resort town of Potchefstroom is 1350m above sea level, Johannesburg is a step up at 1700 m above sea level, so you can effectively add another plastic bag.
You can win away at altitude; I did it in 1995 when Queensland beat Transvaal in the Super 10 final at Ellis Park. We did what a lot of visiting teams used to do, like stay at sea level and fly up to the High Veldt within 24 hours of the match. In our case our base was Durban. This was seen to negate the effects of altitude and certainly worked for us that year. Talking to South African teams who are based at sea level, they ignore the altitude factor, don’t talk about it and just fly up the morning of the match. I don’t know what the Waratahs plans are this week but the altitude is a huge factor and they will have a plan to negate it.
Anyone who has been to Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Pretoria and seen Naas Botha kick a football will know you are in a different world. Against the backdrop of an impossibly pale blue washed out sky, the football seemingly travels into the stratosphere and travels the full length of the pitch. As Naas hoists it above the giant Blou Bulle’s forward pack it travels forever into the thin air of the High Veldt, becoming a speck before falling, giving time for his monstrous forward pack to hit you like a crashing blue tidal wave.
So the Waratahs have battled the travel, the altitude and now they have to face up to the Lions on Saturday. No easy task, the Lions are strong across the field, evidenced by their dismantling of the Jaguares 40 -23 last weekend in their quarter-final clash. What was surprising to me was the way the Lions scrum completely dominated the Puma front row led scrum of the Jaguares, smashing them on occasion. The Lions also shut down the Jaguares running game very easily, committing virtually no one to the ruck and fanning in defence, easily picking up the runners and denying the width of the field. A tactic they will also use against the Waratahs, who have zero attack around the ruck and a reliance on first hit-up runners and using the width of the field. The Waratahs will struggle against the Lions very strong lineout. They like to throw up jumpers in defence and will pinch some throws for sure.
Best of luck to the Waratahs, I don’t think they will get through this weekend as I feel it is a game too far for them. I hope the Tahs surprise me again but travel, altitude and a very strong team playing at home are conspiring against a Tahs win. Smart money on the Lions is my bet for the weekend and the Crusaders to beat the Hurricanes in the other semi-final in Christchurch.
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Comments on RugbyPass
Oh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
26 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
2 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
2 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
7 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
5 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
5 Go to commentsHey Nick, your match analysis is decent but the top and tail not so much, a bit more random. For a start there’s a seismic difference in regenerating any club side over a test team. EJ pretty much had to urinate with the appendage he’d been given at test level whereas club success is impacted hugely by the budget. Look no further than Boudjellal’s Toulon project for a perfect example. The set ups at La Rochelle and Leinster are like chalk and cheese and you are correct that Leinster are ahead. Leinster are not just slightly ahead though, they are light years ahead on their plans, with the next gen champions cup team already blooded, seasoned and developing at speed from their time manning the fort in the URC while the cream play CC and tests. They have engineered a strong talent conveyor belt into their system, supported by private money funnelled into a couple of Leinster private schools. The really smart move from Leinster and the IRFU however is maximising the Irish Revenue tax breaks (tax relief on the best 10 years earnings refunded at retirement) to help keep all of their stars in Ireland and happy, while simultaneously funding marquee players consistently. And of course Barrett is the latest example. But in no way is he a “replacement for Henshaw”, he’s only there for one season!!! As for Rob Baxter, the best advice you can give him is to start lobbying Parliament and HMRC for a similar state subsidy, but don’t hold your breath… One thing Cullen has been very smart with is his coaching team. Very quickly he realised his need to supplement his skills, there was talk of him exiting after his first couple of years but he was extremely shrewd bringing in Lancaster and now Nienaber. That has worked superbly and added a layer that really has made a tangible difference. Apart from that you were bang on the money… 😉😂
5 Go to commentsNot sure exactly what went wrong for him at Glasgow but it’s pretty clear he ain’t Franco’s cup of tea. Suspect he would have been better served heading out of Scotland around the same time as Finn, Hoggy and Jonny!
1 Go to commentsBulls disrespected the Northampton supporters and the competition. Decide quickly, fully in or out.
26 Go to commentsI wonder if Parling was ever on England’s radar as a coach? Obviously Borthwick is a great lineout coach, but I do worry he might be taking on too much as both head coach and forwards coach.
1 Go to commentsJason Jenkins has one cap. When Etzebeth was his age he had over 80 caps. Experience matters. He will never amount to what Etzebeth has because he hasn’t been developed as an international player.
2 Go to commentsSays much about the player picking this gig over the easier and bigger rewards offered to him in Japan. Also says a lot about the state sanctioned tax benefits the Irish Revenue offers pro rugby players, with their ten highest earning years subject to an additional 40% tax relief and paid as a lump sum, in cash, at retirement. Certainly helps Leinster line up the financial ducks in a row to fund marquee signings like this!!! No other union anywhere in world rugby benefits from this kind of lucrative financial sponsorship from their government…
5 Go to commentsTrue Jordie could earn a lot more in Japan. But by choosing Leinster he’ll be playing with 1 of the best clubs in the world and can win a champions cup and URC…..
6 Go to commentsThanks for that Marshy, noticed you didn't say who is gonna win it. We know who ain't gonna win it - your Crusaders outfit. They've gone from having arguably the best Super Rugby first five ever, to having a clutch of rookies. Hurricanes all the way!
1 Go to commentsGeez you really have to question the NRLs ability to produce players of quality. Its pathetic. Dont the 25mil in Aus produce enough quality womens players. Sad.
1 Go to commentsBulls fan here, and agree 100% with the conclusion (and little else) of this article. SA sides should absolutely f-off from the champs cup until we get fair scheduling, equal support for travel arrangements and home semis. You know, like all the european teams get.
26 Go to commentsI’m yet to see why Grace would be an ABs contender. He’s pedestrian and lacks the dominance required of a top flight 8.
11 Go to commentsGee my Highlanders were terrible. They have gone backwards since the start of the season. The trouble began when we left Millar behind to prep as the 10 against the Brumbies and he was disconnected from the team that came back from Aussie. We rested Patchell for that game and we blew an avalanche of ball in good attacking positions in the 1st half. Against the Rebels we seem to of gone into a pod system with forwards hanging off from the breakdown leaving Fakatava to secure our ball!
80 Go to comments