Ireland and Scotland's Japan RWC fear factor should be escalating
There are few things as lusted over by sports fans as a great underdog story.
In rugby terms, the pinnacle of this was arguably Japan’s infamous win over South Africa at the 2015 Rugby World Cup in England, as the then Eddie Jones-coached Brave Blossoms upset one of rugby’s true behemoths in Brighton.
South Africans aside, the rugby world celebrated as the Tier 2 nation surpassed all expectations and bloodied the nose of the two-time Rugby World Cup champions.
Inevitably, eyes now turn towards the upcoming tournament in Japan with hard-to-be-sated hunger for another giant killing, not to mention the opportunity for rugby’s second tier to show their worth among the global elite.
Argentina, admittedly a Tier 1 nation with a history full of established scalps, have been talked up as a genuine threat to England in Pool C, although this seems to be on the back of the impressive form of the Jaguares in Super Rugby, rather than Los Pumas.
Mario Ledesma’s side were competitive against New Zealand for much of their Rugby Championship opener, although a short turnaround and long travel meant that they were fairly disappointing against Australia in Brisbane a week later. Sat alongside France and Argentina, England will be wary, but they will not be worried based on what they’ve seen from both teams in recent seasons and months. Under Jones, England have a record seven wins from eight games against the pair.
Perennial dark horses, Fiji’s chances have also been talked up globally, as they boast a team full to the brim with game-changing talents. Could they turn the tables on Wales or Australia in Pool D?
Wales will be confident, despite their famous loss to Fiji at the 2007 Rugby World Cup, coming into the tournament as Six Nations Grand Slam winners, and Fiji will need to be sharper against Australia than they have been so far in the Pacific Nations Cup if they want to unseat their local rivals and give themselves a shot of making the quarter-finals.
However, if there are two established Tier 1 sides who should be worried about a dark horse over the next couple of months, then they are Ireland and Scotland, who sit alongside hosts Japan in Pool A.
Unlike Fiji, who have been finding their feet in the PNC, Japan have hit the ground running. They dispensed with Fiji in a 34-21 victory in Kamaishi, before seeing off Tonga, 41-7, at Hanazono Stadium on Saturday.
Against Fiji, Japan were arguably better than the 13-point winning margin showed, whilst they were full value for their comprehensive dismantling of Tonga. One final game against USA looms in a week’s time, with the two undefeated teams set to duke it out for the PNC title.
It’s not just form that Japan will bring to the table when they take on Ireland and Scotland, as well as Russia and Samoa, in Pool A, it’s also home advantage.
Not only will they have that home support, but they also have a well-balanced schedule. They open the tournament against Russia and will then have seven complete days to prepare for their match against Ireland. Ireland, in contrast, will have just the five days between their opener against Scotland and their game against the hosts.
Japan will then have six complete free days going into their test against Samoa, where Samoa will only have had four, following their game with Scotland. Finally, the Blossoms get seven complete days before their concluding game against Scotland, with the Guinness Six Nations side facing a testing three-day turnaround following their contest with Russia.
Both support and schedule will be heavily weighted in Japan’s favour at the tournament, just as you would expect as the competition’s hosts.
What the PNC has also illustrated is the growing depth that head coach Jamie Joseph can call upon, most notably in the back row.
Having started Kazuki Himeno, Lappies Labuschagne and Amanaki Mafi against Fiji, Michael Leitch and Yoshitaka Tokunaga were drafted in on the flank for the game against Tonga, with all five impressing in their own way over the 160 minutes of rugby.
Mafi’s off-field indiscretions aside, he is a player that many Tier 1 nations would love to have in their player pool and the same can be said of the on and off-field abilities of both Leitch and Himeno. Labuschagne and Tokunaga, who competed at the 2016 Rio Olympics in sevens, both more than held their own at openside, too.
Hendrik Tui and Shunsuke Nunomaki are also around the squad and provide options, with Tui having been part of the starting XV on that memorable day in Brighton. Powerful number eight Tevita Tatafu is a further possibility, should Joseph want an extra carrying presence among his loose forwards.
Competition also abounds at scrum-half where, although the more globally known of Japan’s nines, Fumiaki Tanaka may well be playing second fiddle at the Rugby World Cup. Yutaka Nagare, whose control of the game and tactical kicking against Tonga was standout, and Kaito Shigeno, who was equally impressive against Fiji a week before, pose a fascinating position battle for head coach Jamie Joseph.
On the topic of control, fly-half Yu Tamura also provided plenty alongside the first-choice starting tight five, although it should be noted that the set-piece foundation that Japan enjoyed did wilt when they turned to their replacements up front. There is ability in the tight five, but there is not the depth on show that there is in the back row, something which you would expect Ireland in particular to be able to expose.
As for the back line, the centre pairing of Ryoto Nakamura and Timothy Lafaele has combined well and Kotaro Matsushima is impactful wherever he is deployed in the back three. If Tamura, Nakamura and Lafaele can stay fit, Japan will have a midfield capable of hurting teams, whilst Kenki Fukuoka should join Matsushima in the back three, giving Japan two very potent operators out wide and/or counter-attacking in broken field situations.
Crucially, it’s not just the individual players that Japan have that will enable them to cause teams problems, it’s the balance of their side.
They have shown they can play fast, counter-attack and run teams off their feet with quick recycling and width, just as they had to play at the last Rugby World Cup, but they also have the control, kicking game and set-piece prowess to win in an alternative way.
That dual threat that they pose is arguably what separates them from their other Tier 2 rivals, many of whom excel in a very specific style, but who struggle to adapt that when it doesn’t bring the desired results or when the pressure comes on from an opponent. Japan’s ability to do that could see them prosper over the coming months.
Ireland will not easily be able to dominate the kicking and territory games against them, whilst if Scotland play at the tempo they have seemed to favour over the last couple of seasons, they’ll be met with a strong counter-attacking and transition game from the hosts.
As potential celebrated dark horses go, there will be few as passionately supported as Japan later this year and although any wins, including potential ones against Ireland and Scotland, probably won’t have the magnitude that their defeat of South Africa in 2015 did, they would provide the perfect springboard for the tournament, fans and support of rugby in Japan once the Rugby World Cup ends.
With talk of a new, higher profile domestic league and improved fortunes at the international level in recent years, the chances of rousing the sleeping giant that is Japanese rugby seem to be improving at a quick rate.
Watch: JRFU vice-president proposes reform of Japanese domestic rugby
Comments on RugbyPass
Just such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
2 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to commentsWhat remorse? She claimed that her dangerous tackle wasn’t worthy of a red! She should be compensating the injured player for loss of earnings at the minimum. Her ban should include the recovery time of the injured player as well as the paltry 3 match ban.
4 Go to commentsArdie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not that “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. Indeed. There’s no debate.
2 Go to commentsThere’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to commentsSimple reason for wanting him back. Robertson wants him as captain. Otherwise he wouldn’t be bothering chasing him. Not enough reason to come back just to mentor.
10 Go to commentsI had not considered this topic like this at all, brilliant read. I had been looking at his record at the Waratahs and thought it odd the Crusaders appointed him, then couple that with all that experience and talent departing and boom. They’ve got some great talent developing though, and in all honesty I don’t think anyone would be over confident taking them on in a playoff match, no matter how poor the first half of their season was. I think they can pull a game out of their ass when it counts.
2 Go to commentsNot a bad list but not Porecki and not Donaldson. Not because they are Tahs, or Ex Tahs, they are just not good enough. Edmed should be ahead. Far more potential. Wilson should be 8 and Valentini 6. Wilson needs to be told by his father and his coach, stop bloody running in to brick wall defence. You’re not playing under the genius Thorn any more. He’s a fantastic angle runner. The young new 8 from the Brumbies looks really good too. The Lonegrans are just too small for international rugby as is Paisami, as is Hamish Stewart at 12. Both great at Super Rugby level. Stewart could have been a great 10 if not for Brad Thorn. Uru should be there and so should Tupou. Tupou just needs good Australian coaching which he hasn’t been getting. I don’t think Schmidt will excite him.
3 Go to commentsIf he wants to come back then he should. He will be a major asset to the younger locks and could easily be played as an impact player off the bench coming on in the last 30. He is fit, strong and capable and has all the experience to make up for any loss in physical prowess. He could also be brought back with a view to coaching within the structures one day. Duane Vermeulen played until he was 37 or 38. He is now a roaming coach within the South African coaching structures. He was valuable in the last world cup and has been a major influence on Jasper Wiese and other young players which has helped and accelerated their development and growth. Whitelock could do the exact same thing for NZ
10 Go to commentsBrett Excellent words… finally someone (other than DC) has noted that Hanigan is very hard and very good at doing what Backrow should do… his performance via the Drua sauna was quite daunting for those on the other side… very high tackle count… carries with good end result… constant threat to make a good 20-25 meters with those long legs… providing his mass effectively to crunching the Drua pack… Finally he is returning to quality form… way to much injury time over the last 2 years… smart-strong-competent in his skills… caught every lineout throw aimed at him and delivered clean pass to whoever was down below… and he worked hard for the whole 80 minutes… Ned has to be in the top 5 for backrow honors… He knows what is required as he has been there before…
20 Go to commentsI think Sam Whitelock should not touch a return with a bargepole. He went out on a high, playing in the RWC Final. He would be coming back into a team that will be weaker than last years, and might even be struggling to win games, especially against the Boks. Stay in France, enjoy another year with Pau, playing alongside his brother.
10 Go to commentsRyan Coxon has been very impressive considering he was signed by WF as injury cover whilst Uru has been a standout for QR, surprised neither of those mentioned
3 Go to commentsIt’s the massive value he brings with regard team culture/values, preparation, etc. Can’t buy that. I’m hoping to see the young locks get their chance in the big games though.
10 Go to commentsAll good, Gregor, except that you neglected to mention Sam Darry amongst that talented pool of locks. In fact, given Hannah’s inexperience and the fact that Holland won’t be eligible until next year, Lord and Darry might be the frontrunners this year, to join Barrett, Tuipoluto, Va’ii and possibly Whitelock. In fact there might be room for all of them if Barrett played 6 (like Ollie Chessum).
10 Go to commentsHis value is stabilizing the ship 20 - 40 minutes out from the final whistle plus his valuable experience to the underlings coming through.
10 Go to commentsWhat is criminal is she acts like it's no problem her actions have have cause the Italian player to lose her playing career, lose salary, if she did this in day to day life she would be in jail, she is a complete thug!!!
4 Go to comments