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Five reasons why the Springboks will beat Ireland
We’ve never been here before. Thanks to a quirk of the draw and recent inconsistencies from the New Zealand All Blacks, we’ve got the top two ranked teams in the world squaring off before the knockouts. Whatever your views are on the lopsided nature of this World Cup, this is something to celebrate.
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Even after absorbing the flood of hot takes on social media, the countless minutes committed to this clash on podcasts and vlogs, and enough words online and in print to fill an encyclopaedia, it’s still almost impossible to call it. According to experts and amateurs alike, Jacques Nienaber and Andy Farrell might as well meet in a Parisian cave à vins and flip a coin. That’s how close it is.
We’re not going to do that here. Instead we’re going to lean into the folly of picking a winner. Crack your knuckles and get ready to send abusive replies after the match because here are five reasons why the Springboks will surely beat Ireland on Saturday night.
Breakdown dominance
As is the case for almost every rugby match at any level, the battle at the breakdown will go a long way in determining the outcome. And these are two of the best, if not the two best in the world in that department.
South Africa’s size is often overplayed but it’s their accuracy at the ruck and around the fringe that needs to be highlighted. To steal a line from the great Irish UFC champion, Connor McGregor, precision beats power and timing beats speed. As was best demonstrated in their demolition of the All Blacks in Twickenham, the Springboks at their best are relentless in securing quick ball and stifling the opposition’s attack.
Much of that has to do with a rejuvenated Pieter-Steph du Toit who is back to his 2019 form that saw him recognised as World Rugby’s player of the year. Of course, it’s not just that blonde tackling machine but the rest of a frenetic pack that targets the point of contact in pairs and almost always seems to have a man ready to clean out.
Ireland were uncharacteristically vulnerable on the ground against Tonga, coughing up 14 turnovers across the match. If a disjointed side like Tonga can disrupt so much of Ireland’s ball, what will the efficiently drilled South Africans do?
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Ireland’s strength lies in the team’s ability to stitch together consistent and probing phases. It’s a proven way of disrupting South Africa’s game as it moves their big pack around and asks questions of a backline that will look to rush at every opportunity. If Sexton isn’t getting enough front ball at pace, and if the South African defence has time to set, breaking them down could prove to be an insurmountable challenge.
Rush defence
Speaking of rush defences, the South Africans have the most fearsome blitz in the game. The last time the teams met in the Autumn of 2022, the Springboks’ rush, led by Jesse Kriel, who is expected to start at 13 on Saturday, disrupted Ireland’s rhythm. That 19-16 win for Ireland could have gone either way. Sexton was harried and knocked off his groove. Only once did he get around the rush with a trademark wraparound but the supporting defence in the tram quickly snuffed out the threat.
Ireland’s interplay positions them as one of the few teams who can adequately deal with the Springboks’ rush. With a pack of forwards who can pass back against the grain as well as run angles off the shoulder, Ireland won’t shy away from the contact. In fact, inviting the Springboks on might create those half-gaps they need. That’s hardly a given. In fact, on the law of averages, it is also unlikely.
Newfound creativity
South African rugby has long been categorised as one-dimensional, defensive and, let’s be frank, pretty boring. High kicks and meaty mauls. Short passes to unthinking carriers. It’s a simple formula, and three World Cups would suggest that it works.
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Ignoring the fact that this antiquated view has been overly reductive for some time, it is completely false now. The Springboks have one of the most exciting backlines in the game. When last, if ever, could we say that about them? Manie Libbok is painting pictures that were previously only seen in foreign galleries and he has artists of equal dash and daring outside him.
Ireland must now contend with South Africa’s traditional blunt force instruments with the extra threat of surgically sharp weapons out wide and through the midfield. South Africa’s points of difference won’t come as a surprise to Farrell, but, to pinch another famous quote from a man who made a living knocking people out, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. South Africa will rain down blows on the Irish from every conceivable angle.
Contrasting run-ins
When was the last time Ireland played a side who could realistically beat them? Not a team with an outside chance of causing an upset. Another world class outfit with a genuine hope of lifting the World Cup.
That was 225 days ago when they secured a four-try, 32-19 win over France in Dublin. In that time South Africa have played the All Blacks twice. And, if we include the sides chasing the tails of the top four teams, South Africa still look like the team with the more testing run-in to this showdown with a tricky trip to Argentina as well as a narrow win against the Pumas on home soil. What’s more, they’ve already played Scotland in this pool of death.
In a game of fine margins, and this will certainly be a game of the finest of margins, any fractional advantage could be decisive. South Africa’s better conditioning, and the recent lived-experience of bettering a side with the potential to better them, might sway it their way.
World Cup aura
Sometimes there isn’t a reason that one team beats another. At least, no reason that can be explained with analysis or an algorithm. Sometimes it comes down to intangible variables like auras and vibes. Some teams have it, others don’t. And when it comes to World Cups, there is a chasm in this regard between these two otherwise inseparable squads.
It’s not just their records – three tournament wins on one side, eight quarter final losses, along with a pool stage exit, on the other. South African players and their fans expect to go deep in the competition. Irish players and fans hope that they do. See the difference?
Besides the All Blacks, the Springboks are the only team that would consider anything other than a victory come the end of the road a failure. And when things get sticky with only minutes left on the clock, or matches coalesce into hard fought arm wrestles, belief, as much as skill and training, is often the difference. Whatever transpires on Saturday, only one team can look at history and use it as a platform for more success.
Rugby World Cup
Pool A
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
France
2
2
0
0
8
2
New Zealand
2
1
1
0
5
3
Italy
1
1
0
0
5
4
Uruguay
1
0
1
0
0
5
Namibia
2
0
2
0
0
Pool B
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
Ireland
2
2
0
0
10
2
South Africa
2
2
0
0
9
3
Scotland
1
0
1
0
0
4
Tonga
1
0
1
0
0
5
Romania
2
0
2
0
0
Pool C
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
Wales
2
2
0
0
10
2
Fiji
2
1
1
0
6
3
Australia
2
1
1
0
6
4
Georgia
1
0
1
0
0
5
Portugal
1
0
1
0
0
Pool D
P
W
L
D
PF
PA
PD
BP T
BP-7
BP
Total
1
England
2
2
0
0
9
2
Samoa
1
1
0
0
5
3
Japan
2
1
1
0
5
4
Argentina
1
0
1
0
0
5
Chile
2
0
2
0
0
I think certain people must get this & get it once & 4 all, Springbok is absolutely not a one player’s team, it is a collective team, well of course Andrea Portlad is a missing link, for certain people to say Porlad can’t save Springbok l reckoned it’s a reckless & undermining comments , & dangerous,
Sports is about cheating, not just cheating but cheating very cleverly, cos all eyes are on u, as a team who makes things happen s, who makes decisions, who turns things around, so if a team doesn’t cheat at all, good luck to that team!!!!
Tonga!! Cannot be ignored l watched them last night, they beat themselves, so they should be accountable for that, they missed a massive opportunities,
Hi Nickers!! 2B honest, there’s nothing one can write home, about the last game of Springbok & Ireland cos both Teams have highest points in the group, so on itself paves the way to qualifications, Well yeah Malcolm is a missing link, l still believe Ireland is still gonna face Springbok in this competition, l personally didn’t see threat in their display, Springbok can still turned things around, they can still turn heat on 4 Irish big time
This article didn't age well. 'Blitz Defence' = constantly offside, cheating.
I love to read these articles after a win.
😂 😂 😂 🤪 😂
Boks by 10.
Ireland are well oiled on there possession out wide and Saxton’s goal kicking is far superior than the boks
South Africa are accurate at the breakdown, ruk and fringe and with the 7/1 split their rush defence will roll over Ireland like a steam roller knocking them off their feet by the 50th min all their forwards will be on the field !
Referees are favouring the defence at the breakdown
Boks are without Malcolm Marks so line out throws need to be accurate.
I would of said the Box by 10 or more …. It could be closer than that If Ireland can play fast and out wide and accurately and the ref doesn’t slow the game down .. NZ ref so that is unlikely
🤣 😂
Boks at least 6 - as long as they get to slow game down through resets , cramps and injured knees. If the ref keeps it moving then maybe, just maybe - Ireland
Speaking as a neutral, if being an AB supporter could be called that, slowing the game down is as much an Irish ploy as a Springbok one.
Too close to call? Not really, sorry SA, this one is going to the Irish for sure.
This game is worthy of a final. Too close to call. I would have felt much more confident about a win for the Boks if Malcolm Marx was not injured. Of great concern is our suspect goal kicking, whereas Ireland has Sexton, who is deadly accurate with his goal kicking.
I'm not sure about the 7-1. All it takes is one big injury to a back early on to mess up things for Boks. Think its an unecessary risk. I think Ireland have to go crazy till they have a score and then just be calm and wait for the ball to come to them ... also hoping we can keep 18 players on pitch for the whole game ...
Even if 3rd forces can tried as they wish to disrupt Springbok in their accomplishment, Springbok will beat Ireland anywhere anytime, why these 3rd forces telling Springbok shouldn’t wear their tradition Jersey?& yet they don’t say to other teams? Quite strange really, well!! Well!!! Bring it on !!
Hi Brian!!! Well said Sir, but what l couldn’t really understand, why Springbok has to change their tradition jersey when things are not Ok, well of course if U say that l rest my case sir, it’s gonna be a real tough game anyway, let the best team win Brian, which l think me&U know exactly which team!!!!
Springboks beating Ireland anywhere anytime doesn't actually correspond with recent results (which are in favour of Ireland).
Whenever Ireland plays the Boks one team always changes jerseys....I imagine at the world cup it was a toss of the coin that Ireland won. So perhaps ease up on the 'anti Boks ' conspiracy.
Have South Africa ever gone into a game without every journalist questioning how anyone is ever going to beat their [insert metaphor for big] forward pack?
It is an absolute myth. This forward pack is regularly outplayed and lose games.
They are not playing against U20 teams. They are all big enough.
SA got away with murder on the offside line against Scotland, if that is policed even 50% better in this game Ireland can win comfortably.
The size of the pack is not cited as a reason in this piece. As stated: "South Africa’s size is often overplayed but it’s their accuracy at the ruck and around the fringe that needs to be highlighted."
Article looks the part, ‘sounds’ the part & the journo ‘talks’ a good game. However, for a bit of objectivity, how about a piece on 5 reasons why IRELAND will beat the Boks? Even if ‘it’s still almost impossible to call’. Begorrah!
... because they won't?
Cheers. Something along these lines: https://www.rugbypass.com/news/why-everyone-will-be-expecting-ireland-to-win-battle-of-the-behemoths/
Think this match will repeat at end of October. Loser will beat France in QF. Ireland starting pack has slight edge IMO, especially with Sheehan. Need a big game from Wiese. 7-1 with Kleyn & RG tips the balance the other way by FT. Hope Kleyn has a big impact.
Finally, a Rugbypass journalist with a bit of knowledge and an opinion of their own.
Too close to call.
Discipline will win the game. Red card and you lose.
Welcome to the international lottery that is now rugby.
Okay. Smash each other to pieces, huge injuries, multiple red cards, chuck in a 3 all draw, game of the century. Thank you Jesus.
England supporter? 🤣
The Irish are a well coached, astute clever team with a physical presence, SA have brawn, physicality and smarts as well, the forward battle will be immense, to close to call
Thanks to Schmidt the Irish play a NZ game but Ireland don’t have players to continue their dominance after this WC. Yes they may well make it to the semi finals but I wouldn’t bet on them beating the ABs this year, the Blacks are tuning in and have all their forwards back for the quarters.
Well, the bonus in this year's World Cup is; there will be two finals...
This should have been the final, two topped ranked teams meeting in a pool clash. It will be close, I think Ireland have the edge on form and consistency over the last year.. but Springboks know how to dig deep when they need to.. their 100% South African bred team have the ability to find that extra passion... only Argentina and Namibia can also do that
In order to be the final both teams need to get to the final. Pressumably that is possible? SA beat my poor AB's (again) Ireland clean up France?
Springboks have a diverse and inclusive team from its own countrymen! Thats why they need support but hey if you hate them its probably because you are jealous
*blond
18-18 draw
I will take that as a BOK supporter
Well...teams announced...7-1 split on the bench...wiese at 8 and Williamse at 15 to start .
Great clash of styles coming looking forward to this game. I will take Ireland but it may be very close.
If I can summarise this article:
Reasons SA can beat Ireland:
1) they are good at the breakdown
2) rush defence will knock Ireland off their groove
3) they have a back line that can score nice tries when given space
4) I have cherry picked some fixtures to suit my narrative that SA are better prepared
5) I need a 5th point, let's trot out the old genetic tendency for Ireland to underperform at World Cups
But hey it worked, I clicked 😆
I read this earlier on a Saffer forum and thought it was the ultra biased ramblings of a diehard fan. It smacks of “how astute am I” reasoning, and a fair bit of seeing what the author wants to see, summed up by his point 5. Ireland had never beaten NZ until 2016, and then won a series there last year, so why their previous RWC record is relevant is a mystery. A load of twaddle passing itself off as analysis.
And a 7-1 split on the bench!
Which could be very good and very bad. 🤞
So pretty good points in other words.
As usual against the saffers it will be brutal
Ireland are the best integrated team and could have the wood on the dunderheaded meat jocks from RSA
It seems insults are all the opposition fans can bring .That tells us a lot about them .
Dunderheaded meat jocks? SA is the most innovative team in world rugby. It's a complete myth re. them being bigger too...the current Irish pack is heavier for example, the NZ pack is taller on average...but somehow SA are giants? People just think that because they manhandle soft Irishmen easily in contact, but they're not actually bigger. Stronger for sure, more aggressive yes, but not bigger than you soft fat pudgy boys.
there's always one clueless comment in these posts, it only shows that the writer (Chris in this case) is not only ignorant to what rugby is all about but also a bit of a prat, not someone you would want to sit next to at a rugby match.....
The 3 time RWC champions you mean? And would have been 4 if they were there in 1987. Insults just mean you're scared and would vigorously fellate a donkey to have a pack like that
Insults really necessary Chris?
Agree with the writer fully. But bounce of the ball and cards could play a role. I'm a Bok fan, but this could go either way.
Lets just pray for no cards and a fair contest. Should be a great game. Hope Bongi has a big game.