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England given meagre five per cent chance of Six Nations title glory
Ireland have been given a 30 per cent chance of chalking up back-to-back Grand Slam titles, with England given a meagre five per cent of winning the Guinness Six Nations.
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This weekend’s start to the 2024 championship will see defending champions Ireland go to France on Friday night, with England visiting Italy and Scotland going to Wales on Saturday.
Ahead of the eagerly anticipated kick-off, Grosvenor Sport have crunched the numbers and identified the favourites for success by simulating the result of every Six Nations fixture 1,000 times in an attempt to predict the most accurate result.
A statement read: “Ireland have a whopping 61.5 per cent chance of winning the Six Nations and a 49.6 per cent chance of winning another Grand Slam, according to data analysts.
“A team of number crunchers at Grosvenor Sport have created a model that can simulate the result of every Six Nations game 1,000 times to give the most accurate result possible.
“Using the current World Rugby rankings, as well as home advantage and bonus point likelihood, Ireland won the tournament 615 times out of 1,000 – meaning they have a 61.5 per cent chance of winning the tournament.
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“Using these raw figures to assimilate a percentage, we can see France are second favourites at 31.5 per cent and England trail well behind with just a 5.2 per cent chance of winning the tournament.
“Based on these figures, we can also confidently say Scotland will finish fourth, above Wales and Italy, who will collect yet another wooden spoon. There is an 84 per cent chance they will finish bottom of the Six Nations table.
“If we look at the chances of a Grand Slam, France and Ireland are once again favourites, making the opening game of the 2024 tournament even more crucial.
“Whilst it is still more likely there will not be a Grand Slam winner (49.8 per cent chance) Ireland are the most likely side to win every single game and complete back-to-back Grand Slams at 30.5 per cent.
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“The opening game of the tournament in Marseille is likely to decide not only the course of the championship, but also the likelihood of a Grand Slam for either team. France have a 15.6 per cent chance of winning the Grand Slam, a feat they managed in 2022 after beating Ireland 30-24.
“England have got just a three per cent chance of winning the Grand Slam, slightly better than Scotland who have a one per cent chance of winning it.”
Comments on RugbyPass
Maybe if you come once in your life in France you won’t writte so much nonsense 🙃
1 Go to commentsWhy did they kill 14 people at a gaelic football match? What had happened earlier that day? Dowson sounds absolutely pathetic, believing what the Irish say about his people, rather than believing what his people say about the Irish.
1 Go to commentsI haven't really experienced the Irish as arrogant but I guess the players maybe got ahead of themselves after a big win. Just thought it being Ireland and their love afair with WC QF exits and it being the ABs maybe they would have taken it a bit more seriously. Maybe they did and just lost anyways, who knows.
3 Go to commentsNot surprising, they tend to get very carried away with themselves very quickly. I’ve never seen a team so devastated at the final whistle than those irish players in that QF, you’d think they had lost the final.
3 Go to commentsJust a roundabout way of claiming to great fun. Self -praise is no praise, frenchie.
1 Go to commentsIreland have played the ABs since the first game 1905 a total of 37 times. The ABs have won 32 and Ireland 5 times. If we look since the first WC, then they have played each other 28 times. All Ireland’s 5 wins have come since 2016. So the ABs won 23 games. Since Ireland won their first game in 2016, they have won 5 and the ABs 4 times. Fairly even. Whatever anyone says, beating ABs consistently is bloody difficult, and when you manage to win a few, show respect to them. Period.
180 Go to comments‘Mom'.
1 Go to commentsA specialist in hitting smaller guys hard and late. Serial cheap shot merchant who deserves more than the usual token sanction for such actions.
1 Go to commentsI like to see the Crusaders lose as much as the next non-Crusaders fan, but the fact that most of their best players have not been available this year is being hand waved away like it shouldn’t effect them. It’s no coincidence that their first dominant performance came when they had more of their best players back. This is not rocket science. If they can stay fit their team at the business end of the season will include Tamaiti Williams, Codie Taylor, Fletcher Newell, Scott Barrett, Quentin Strange, Ethan Blackadder and Cullen Grace in the forwards - most of whom have barely, or not played this year. That is an outstanding pack that have not played together this season. McLeod, Havili, Aumua, Reece, and Halfpenny will be a very different prospect behind their first choice pack as well. Having said all that Penney’s record is scratchy at best, but given the players that have left and their injury list I’m reserving judgement. Penney’s appointment, a bit like Foz, has a similar stench of the incumbent having too much say in his replacement. They are lacking a truly high quality and experienced 10 which will make it hard for them to go the whole way IMO, but the list of teams who would want to play them in the finals will be very short.
17 Go to commentsWhere’s this people's champion come from? Irish people yes….other people? Their arrogance has become breathtaking. Not tested? Oh dear.
180 Go to commentsIf a coach having Crusaders heritage is so sacrosanct, why did the Crusaders not pursue Vern Cotter as Scott Robertson’s replacement?
17 Go to commentsFinau is definitely operating on razor thin margins. He hasn’t done anything wrong… yet. But a player going into contact 6 inches lower than he is expecting, without him even knowing, will end in disaster. You can imagine a situation where the pass dies on Edmed and he has to bend down a little lower to catch it at the last second. Finau’s hit would have been catastrophic. The margins are just too fine. He needs to study how PSDT, at 6’7”, manages to drop his tackle height and exert just as much force with close zero danger of taking someone’s head off. Given how poorly NZ has adapted to lower their tackle height, and that this issue which has plagued the ABs for years and played a big part in them not winning the World Cup, I thought NZR and all SR coaches would be prioritising sorting this issue out. If I was Razor I would be on the phone to Clayton MacMillan and Samipeni Finau saying exactly that. Finau is a monster and shaping up to be the closest thing to Kaino since Kaino, but I wouldn’t risk selecting him for the ABs at the moment.
18 Go to commentsThe surprising stat I saw in the Blues game when showing Sotutu equaling the Blues forwards record was that Akira has not scored a try since 2019. Now my memory is pretty bad when it comes to those sorts of the things, I can remember his AB try though, but anyway I can’t see I can remember his last blues touchdown or any in recent years. Surely that still has to be a bogus stat. Maybe excludes SRA games?
3 Go to commentsDude to me looks pretty fast for a big man, nearly 2m and 130kg, in his workout vid he was signed off. Possibly a bit slow on his reads movement wise though, but I’ve not got anything to compare him to. Hope the dude nails it and finds his sport, could have been a devastating lock in rugby if he wasn’t a footballer growing up.
4 Go to commentsWell, does that make it every year Moana has lost it’s best player the following year? Normally it’s more immediate I guess, at least there best player had a follow up year this time.
1 Go to commentsFinally, an answer to Dan Carter.
1 Go to commentsNever read such tripe. He was hit just as he passed the ball which was reviewed and deemed legal by yes the Australian TMO and referee
18 Go to commentsTerrible idea…will be too hot, no one will travel, fan zones will be promised nice cold guinness and last minute will get water. Also how do you squeeze this into the already busy battle rhythm, Prem, summer series, 6 nations & world cup….if, and its a big IF you’re going to do this, do it in a rugby nation.
2 Go to commentsWell let’s hope world rugby doesn't read some of this nonsense, because next on the agenda will be…“players will only tackle other players deemed to be in their weight class, and only with moderate velocity”.
18 Go to commentsI was never allowed to adjust boots, or ever replaced, while I was playing and staying on the field. If I had issues, I had to go to the sideline and fix them myself. Then I would ask the ref to get back in. That would really make you deal with it FAST!
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