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England given meagre five per cent chance of Six Nations title glory

By Liam Heagney
New England skipper Jamie George (Photo by David Ramos/The RFU Collection via Getty Images)

Ireland have been given a 30 per cent chance of chalking up back-to-back Grand Slam titles, with England given a meagre five per cent of winning the Guinness Six Nations.

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This weekend’s start to the 2024 championship will see defending champions Ireland go to France on Friday night, with England visiting Italy and Scotland going to Wales on Saturday.

Ahead of the eagerly anticipated kick-off, Grosvenor Sport have crunched the numbers and identified the favourites for success by simulating the result of every Six Nations fixture 1,000 times in an attempt to predict the most accurate result.

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A statement read: “Ireland have a whopping 61.5 per cent chance of winning the Six Nations and a 49.6 per cent chance of winning another Grand Slam, according to data analysts.

“A team of number crunchers at Grosvenor Sport have created a model that can simulate the result of every Six Nations game 1,000 times to give the most accurate result possible.

six nations stats two

“Using the current World Rugby rankings, as well as home advantage and bonus point likelihood, Ireland won the tournament 615 times out of 1,000 – meaning they have a 61.5 per cent chance of winning the tournament.

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“Using these raw figures to assimilate a percentage, we can see France are second favourites at 31.5 per cent and England trail well behind with just a 5.2 per cent chance of winning the tournament.

“Based on these figures, we can also confidently say Scotland will finish fourth, above Wales and Italy, who will collect yet another wooden spoon. There is an 84 per cent chance they will finish bottom of the Six Nations table.

“If we look at the chances of a Grand Slam, France and Ireland are once again favourites, making the opening game of the 2024 tournament even more crucial.

“Whilst it is still more likely there will not be a Grand Slam winner (49.8 per cent chance) Ireland are the most likely side to win every single game and complete back-to-back Grand Slams at 30.5 per cent.

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“The opening game of the tournament in Marseille is likely to decide not only the course of the championship, but also the likelihood of a Grand Slam for either team. France have a 15.6 per cent chance of winning the Grand Slam, a feat they managed in 2022 after beating Ireland 30-24.

“England have got just a three per cent chance of winning the Grand Slam, slightly better than Scotland who have a  one per cent chance of winning it.”

six nations stats

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