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All Blacks Test further evidence of Japan's world class potential

By Ned Lester
Warner Dearns runs in the try for Japan. Photo by Koki Nagahama/Getty Images

Kiwi pundits have given Japan their flowers after a surprisingly tight test match in Tokyo.

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The Japanese team have been on a steady upward trajectory over the past decade. The famous victory over South Africa in the 2015 World Cup made way for the signing of head coach Jamie Joseph, who since 2016 has overseen further historic wins against Ireland, Scotland, Italy and Wales.

The growth of the Brave Blossoms was illustrated perfectly following Saturday’s match with a graphic displaying the final scores of all five of the tests now played between the two nations and the steady decline in winning margin for the All Blacks; from the 129-point victory at the 1995 World Cup to this weekend’s 7 points.

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Sky’s The Breakdown panel discussed how the Japanese side have reached these new heights, sighting increased quality in their local competition, tactics around physicality and coaching as the big drivers of the success.

“I watched highlights of previous games where we did pump Japan,” Ex-Black Fern Chelsea Semple said. “And they’re just completely different athletes now.

“They’ve obviously got a lot of New Zealand rugby players or overseas internationals coming to play in their competition, their training’s ramped up, they’re physical beasts out on the field some of them, and that’s a big shift they’ve made which is why they’re able to compete physically with the All Blacks now.”

Mils Muiliana agreed the growth of the local competition has had a prosperous impact on the national team.

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“The game’s changed over there now,” The ex-All Black said. “It’s changed from behind the scenes.

“The companies have got really behind the Rugby Union, they’ve invested a lot of resource into that and it’s starting to rub off.

“Even the Sunwolves being a part of Super Rugby, some of the experience that those players have had. We’ve seen it already with the Highlanders, they’ve come over and they’ve gone back.

“Them working together with the companies to get foreigners to come and sort of share some of their knowledge, that’s starting to rub off and I think it’s evident of where the players have got to n0w, they understand the physical nature of it, they’re standing up, the training’s a little bit different.”

Muliaina was also full of praise for Japan’s defence.

“The Japanese (were) outstanding, their defence was huge.

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“It just felt like they (The All Blacks) were waiting for things to happen, just stick to that plan, stick to that plan, Japan will falter, they’ll start to fall off tackles… and it never happened.

“Usually, they would start to fall off and then you start to win momentum. We won a little bit of momentum, but then they got it back and scored an excellent try, they were back in the game, so this Japanese side can easily go – well they’ve done it, they’ve beaten tier one teams, so they’re certainly capable of doing that.”

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Taylah Johnson complimented Japan’s attack and the impact of ex-Highlanders head coach Tony Brown.

“Yeah, we also need to give credit to the coaching staff of Jamie Joseph and Tony Brown. Yes, you can have the cattle but what you’re doing with them is really important as well.

“You can see Tony Brown all over the line out moves, the set piece moves as well, they were always trying something different and they were changing pictures for that All Black team and it made it hard to defend.

“They’re not playing the simple rugby that they used to play, they’re always doing something different and it was really hard for the team to read defensively.”

Mils Muliaina then looked ahead to the Brave Blossom’s upcoming Northern Tour schedule, with the next Test coming against England, followed by France.

“They now go to England, which is a tough place to go and play, Twickenham. It’s another stepping stone in terms of their plan.

“They’re going to have that same challenge when they go to England, if not even harder because those guys there are probably a lot more physical than probably what the All Blacks are in terms of the size in that team.

“So, he (Tony Brown) knows what the challenge is but also what I love about what Browny’s saying is the plan that they’ve got in place leading into Rugby World Cup.”

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Flankly 8 hours ago
The AI advantage: How the next two Rugby World Cups will be won

If rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.

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