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'When Russell comes on we either win by 20 points or lose by 20'

By Liam Heagney
(Photo by Rodger Bosch/AFP via Getty Images)

The Lions’ hopes of clinching Test series victory against the Springboks encountered a huge moment of intrigue just eleven minutes into Saturday’s deciding third match in Cape Town when Dan Biggar, their first choice out-half, limped out of the contest and was replaced by Finn Russell.

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Biggar, whose right knee was heavily strapped at the start of the match, was injured when painfully tackling Lukhanyo Am inside the Lions 22 and following a period of treatment on the pitch, he hobbled his way to the sidelines and it resulted in the introduction of Russell for his Lions Test debut after he got the nod ahead of Owen Farrell to sit on the third Test bench. 

The arrival of Russell into the match at such an early juncture was greeted with curiosity by the Sky Sports team commentating live on the match in the UK and Ireland. Will Greenwood, the ex-Lions centre and 2003 England World Cup winner, said: “We love him but when Finn Russell comes on we either win by 20 points or lose by 20, there is no middle ground.

“I don’t think he has played in five weeks but he is obviously fit. He will have come through some serious training sessions this week but wow, if you look at the fly-halves (Warren) Gatland has picked over the years, Russell coming on in the eleventh minute is a change in strategy, a complete change of strategy.” 

Sam Warburton, the Lions skipper on the 2013 and 2017 tours to Australia and New Zealand, added: “It is fascinating that there is a change at No10 this early. It will be fascinating to see how the Lions change their approach, if they do.”

Lions boss Gatland had admitted last month that Russell might have to quit the tour if his achilles injury didn’t respond to treatment and he even called up Marcus Smith on July 10 to provide cover given the Scottish player’s layoff following a July 7 injury when playing as a sub versus the Sharks. However, the situation eventually turned out positively for Russell and he took Farrell’s place on the Test bench with the series outcome going down to the wire.

Russell was soon in the thick of the action in Cape Town, landing a 16th-minute penalty to pull the Lions level at 3-all and he then added the conversion to Ken Owens’ 19th-minute try for a 10-3 lead. The Lions went on to reach the break 10-6 ahead with Russell the big focus of attention in Biggar’s absence.  

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“With Finn Russell coming on, crikey, what a 30 minutes or so he has had,” continued ex-Lions boss Ian McGeechan at half-time. Ronan O’Gara, a three-tour Lions selection, added: “Simply, he is the best man to pick apart a rush defence. Why do I say that? Because he is probably the most instinctive player in Europe certainly. Do not be fooled by his smiley, lazy, laid-back approach.

“I know Mike Prendergast, who coaches him at Racing, and he says he is hugely diligent, highly involved in studying the game inside out. His capacity to execute is better and he just has an extra zip in his pass. He is knocking on the door and these passes will pull them [South Africa] apart as the defence fatigues later in the game.” O’Gara’s prediction didn’t come true, however, as the Springboks were ultimately victorious, 2009 series hero Morne Steyn landing a 79th-minute penalty to clinch the 19-16 victory.

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Flankly 8 hours ago
The AI advantage: How the next two Rugby World Cups will be won

If rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.

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