This is not a dangerous All Black side for the Boks to 'watch out' for
The current form of the All Blacks suggests that they will be beaten in South Africa.
Not demolished, but beaten in each of the tests where home advantage will play a part for the Springboks in what would be their first home victories over New Zealand since 2014.
You can’t logically pick the All Blacks on hopes and dreams of a fiery response just because their pride and egos have been hurt. If that mattered, they would have responded in the third test against Ireland after winning just one of the last four tests.
They didn’t win simply because their execution is below par, while Ireland’s was superb, and that is the form they are bringing to South Africa.
The coaching staff has changed and the opponent has changed but the players haven’t. It remains to be seen how quickly the players can respond to new voices.
The Irish pack outworked, outplayed and out-thought New Zealand’s forwards, led by dismissed assistant coach John Plumtree, in the three-match series.
While Ireland have put together one of the best packs in the game, the manner in which their Kiwi counterparts crumbled across the second and third tests is of major concern.
Ill-discipline, missed tackles, poor reads in defence, bad angles all over the park – the All Black forwards were not a polished unit. Hidden in the tape are the questionable efforts and decisions.
At times, they produced good plays in defence. Whether it was Akira Ioane or Ardie Savea driving an Irish ball carrier sideways or behind the gainline, they enforced themselves defensively in short bursts.
Then, all of a sudden, the line opened up all too easily after some smart play from Ireland and the All Blacks would be scrambling with the defensive system reeling. This was the case early in every test match.
The Springboks will not whip the ball from sideline to sideline with meticulously planned moves like Ireland, and in that sense, the defensive reads for the All Blacks will be much easier defending a one-dimensional attack.
It will be as basic as see man with ball, hit man. When the Springboks backs try to play, the ball ends up on the floor or over the sideline more than coaches would like.
Stars like Cheslin Kolbe can pull off something brilliant as an individual when given half a chance, but ask them to put it all together as a unit and they tend to come up with rocks quite frequently, which is similar to these All Blacks.
The assignment ahead is brute physicality, yet the memories of Irish loose forwards regularly cutting through some feeble tackle attempts are still fresh. There is little confidence that the All Blacks will be able to hold ground against Bok carry after Bok carry for long.
Wales faltered in their third test against South Africa, but they actually found a technical defensive solution in the first test to blunt the Springboks’ runners. It worked so well it is hard to understand why they didn’t continue it.
The surprise recall of Dan Lydiate tipped off what Wales would try to do. The man known as “The Chopper” for his grass-cutter tackles led the way for a Welsh pack that cut the Springboks down at the knees.
One-by-one, the Welsh pack courageously rushed forward and went low to chop South Africa’s ball runners in half. The nearest defenders wrapped the ball carrier up top and made a total mess of the carry and ensuing breakdown.
Although dangerous and putting one’s self in harm’s way, the commitment by the Welsh pack to attack low with chop tackles paid off as the Springboks ground game went nowhere and faltered behind the gain line for most of the day.
Eben Etzebeth had five or six carries for a net gain of one metre, if that. He was well and truly handled by a gritty and committed opposing pack that put one of the Boks’ best ball carriers on ice, and that is a rare occurrence.
In the third test, the Welsh tacklers went high and they were steamrolled as multiple tries were scored simply by running one-off carries.
Handre Pollard and Siya Kolisi were the beneficiaries and scored barge-over tries when the Welsh line could not take the punishment any longer.
The All Blacks pack rarely gang tackle and don’t work hard enough to swarm the ball carriers after the chop like Wales did in Bloemfontein, and to be brutally honest, don’t have the daring to go that low either.
It won’t be their thing, despite the tactic being a success early in the Springboks-Wales series.
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In addition to stopping big ball runners, the All Blacks will also have to perform well in the air.
If they can nail the Boks behind the gain line, the ball will be promptly sent to the heavens and that means Jordie Barrett has to step up and perform at the level he did last year under the high ball, which was exceptionally well.
This year there have been concerns in the aerial game: in the third test against Ireland, the All Blacks failed to secure the high ball regularly, whether it was a kick-chase or diffusing one on defence.
The Irish tactic of using the one-handed back-bat disrupted the catch zone often and was a smart tactic the All Blacks backfield did not find an answer for.
The go-to for South Africa is clearly the rolling maul, which bailed them out in that first test against Wales, as it has on many other occasions.
The Irish mauled over the top of the All Blacks pack for two tries in Wellington, on the first maul attempt on both occasions.
The Springboks forwards will do the same if afforded the opportunity, and they likely will, based on the poor discipline demonstrated this season by the All Blacks.
New All Blacks forwards coach Jason Ryan will have to work magic in a short time to improve his pack’s efficiency across a broad range of areas, including the maul defence and discipline.
Milking penalties from the maul and scrum is South Africa’s plan A, B and all the way to Z. The All Blacks need solutions to stop the piggybacks occurring and head coach Ian Foster will be hopeful that Ryan has those answers.
If the All Blacks are ill-disciplined like they were against Ireland, the Springboks will play their set-piece-athon game without much fuss and will control proceedings and the clock.
They don’t need to be that good elsewhere, strength and power should be enough to get them home against an out-of-sorts All Blacks side with plenty of issues to get through.
The narrative this is a dangerous All Black side to watch out for because they are losing and hurting is total nonsense.
Will they be tough to play? Sure. They will fight hard as all All Blacks sides do. But will they be dangerous? The evidence says absolutely not.
A dangerous All Black side is one that is winning regularly and putting 40 points on opponents playing an attractive brand of attacking, clinical rugby that looks unstoppable.
They are clearly not that side. You couldn’t dream of a better time to play them over the last 20 years than right now when they are losing test matches left, right and centre with instability in the coaching staff.
Who would you rather play, a winning, in-form All Black side or a losing, out-of-sorts one?
The Springboks have two games at home and not only is two wins on offer, it is the probable outcome.
If they can’t beat the worst performing All Black side in 25 years in their own backyard for the first time since 2014, when will they?
Comments on RugbyPass
Absolutely..all they need is a chance in yhe playoffs and I bet all the other teams will be nervous…THEY KNOW HOW TO WIN IM THE PLAYOFFS..
2 Go to commentsI really hope he comes back and helps out with some coaching.
1 Go to commentsI think we are all just hoping that the Olympic 7s doesn’t suffer the same sad fate as the last RWC with the officials ruining the spectacle.
1 Go to commentsPersonally, I’ve lost the will to even be bothered about the RFU, the structure, the participants. It’s all a sham. I now simply enjoy getting a group of friends together to go and watch a few games a year in different locations (including Europe, the championship, etc). I feel extremely sorry for the real fans of these clubs who are constantly ignored by the RFU and other administrators. I feel especially sorry for the fans of clubs in the Championship who have had considerable central funding stripped away and are then expected to just take whatever the RFU put to them. Its all a sham, especially if the failed clubs are allowed to return.
9 Go to commentsI’m guessing Carl Hayman would have preferred to have stayed in NZ with benefit of hindsight. Up north there is the expectation to play twice as many games with far less ‘player management’ protocols that Paul is now criticising. Less playing through concussions means longer, healthier, careers. Carter used as the eg here by Paul, his sabbatical allowed him to play until age 37. OK its not an exact science but there is far more expectations on players who sign for Top 14 or Engl Prem clubs to get value for the huge salaries. NZR get alot wrong but keeping their best players in NZ rugby is not one of them. SA clubs are virtually devoid of their top players now, no thanks. They cant threaten the big teams in the Champions Cup, the squads have little depth. Cant see Canes/Chiefs struggling. Super has been great this year, fantastic high skill matches. Drua a fantastic addition and Jaguares will add another quality team eventually. Aus teams performing strongly and no doubt will benefit with the incentive of a Lions tour and a home RWC. Let Jordie enjoy his time with Leinster, it will allow the opportunity for another player to emerge at Canes in his absence.
5 Go to commentsLove that man, his way to despise angry little men is so funny ! 😂
4 Go to comments“South African franchises would be powerhouses if we had all our overseas based players back in situ. We would have the same unbeatable aura the Toulouses, Leinsters or Saracens of this world have had over the last decade or so.” Proof that Jake white does not understand the economics of the game in SA. Players earning abroad are not going to simply come back and represent the bulls. But they might if they have a springbok contract.
22 Go to commentsA lot of fans just joined in for the fun of it! We all admire O'Gara and what he has done for La Rochelle
4 Go to commentsThe RFU will find a way to mess this up as usual. My bet is there will be no promotion into the the Premiership, only relegation into National League One. Hopefully they won’t parachute failed clubs into the league at the expense of clubs who have battled for promotion.
9 Go to commentsWell that’s the contracts for RG and Jordie bought and paid for. Now, what are the chances we can persuade Antoine to hop over with all the extra dosh we’ll have from living at the Aviva & Croke next season…??? 🤑🤑🤑
14 Go to commentsWow, that’s incredible. Great for rugby.
14 Go to commentsYou probably read that parling is going to coach the wallaby lineout but if not before now you have.
14 Go to commentsIf someone like Leo Cullen was in O’Gara’s place I don’t hear Boo-ing. It’s not just that La Rochelle has hurt Leinster and O’Gara is their Irish boss. It’s the needle that he brings and the pantomime activity before the game around pretending that Munster were supporting LaRochelle just because O’Gara is from Cork. That’s dividing Irish provinces just to get an advantage for his French Team. He can F*ck right off with that. BOOOOO! (but not while someone is lying injured)
4 Go to commentsDid the highlanders party too hard before the game? They were the pits.
1 Go to commentsWhat a player! Not long until he’s in the England side, surely?
5 Go to commentsHe seems to have the same aura as Marcus Smith - by which I mean he’s consistently judged as if he’s several years younger than he actually is. Mngomezulu has played 24 times for the Stormers. When Pollard was his age he had played 24 times for South Africa! He has more time to develop, but he has also had time to do some developing already, and he hasn’t demonstrated nearly as much talent in that time as one would expect. If he is a generational talent, then it must be a pretty poor generation.
6 Go to commentsThe greatest Springbok coach of all time is entirely on the money. Rassie and Jacques have given the south african public a great few years, but the success of the springbok selection policy will need to be judged in light of what comes next. The poor condition that the provincial system is currently in doesn’t bode well for the next few years of international rugby, and the insane 2026 schedule that the Boks have lined up could also really harm both provincial and international consistency.
22 Go to commentsJake White is a brilliant coach and a master in the press. This is another masterclass in media relations and PR but its also a very narrow view with arguments that dont always hold water. White wants his team to win, he wants the best players in SA and wants his team competitive. You however have to face up to the reality of a poor exchange rate and big clubs with big budgets. SA Rugby cant compete and unless it can find more money SA players will keep leaving regardless of Springbok eligibility and this happened in 2015 - 2017. Also rugby is not cricket. Cricket has 3 formats and T20 cricket is where the money is at. When it comes to club vs country the IPL is king but that wont happen because the international calendar does not clash with the club calendar in rugby. So the argument about rugby going down the same path as cricket is really a non-starter
22 Go to commentsNZ rugby seem not to have learnt anything from professional rugby. Super rugby was dying and SA left before they died with the competition. SA rugby did a u turn on their approach to international players playing overseas and such players are now selected for Bok teams. As much as each country would love to retain their players playing in local competitions, this is the way the world is evolving my friends. Move with it or stay 20 years behind the times. One more thing. NZ rugby hierarchy think they are the big cheese. Take a more humble approach guys. You do not seem to have your players best interests at heart.
5 Go to commentsBeaches? In Cardiff? Where?
1 Go to comments