The 'three ways to win a World Cup' the All Blacks could employ to push themselves ahead of the chasing pack
New Zealand rugby in the last decade has undeniably been a beacon for the positive results that can come from having patience in a coach and a coaching system.
Whilst the likes of France have employed, and indeed unemployed for that matter, several coaches in the last ten years in a ‘quick-fix’ style akin to the top clubs in the English Premier League, the All Blacks have remained steadfast, ever confident in the man at the top and in his ability to bring the best out of the team.
Of course, the ‘master and apprentice’ set-up of the All Blacks is by now well documented, with the records of the men formerly in those roles firm justification for such a system’s effectiveness.
Sir Graham Henry holds an 85.43 per cent winning record as coach and Sir Steve Hansen boasts an 88.79 per cent win record. Throw in a couple of World Cups, a handful of Rugby Championship titles and a staggering Bledisloe Cup record and you seemingly have all the reason in the world to believe that the All Blacks’ system of ‘building from within’ marks the only effective way to dominate at international level.
Cue the anomaly. Rassie Erasmus, with but 18-months until the World Cup in Japan, took on the role of head coach of the Springboks and changed the tide of South African rugby, masterminding a World Cup triumph out of a team formerly on hard times.
Yet since that World Cup, no such dramatic change has been seen within the All Blacks, not that there was a particular need for it. Rather, Ian Foster’s appointment, following in his predecessor Hansen’s footsteps, clearly marks the All Blacks’ continued policy of sticking with a system that has proved so effective for so long now.
Of course, such a transition was somewhat eased by the fact that the majority of players featuring under Hansen continued to appear for Foster. In his first 35-man squad of 2020, Foster brought in seven new faces and of the 23 that featured in the Yokohama semi-final defeat, fifteen featured in the Bledisloe I draw in 2020. On paper, ‘cohesion’ still appeared to remain the name of the game.
But with an arguably mixed bag of results in 2020 and the ever-present dominance of a Crusaders team coached by the impressive Scott Robertson, opinions began to emerge that went against the firm trend of the decade – it was time for something new, something fresh and competitive: A change to the All Blacks system.
A figure able to provide fascinating insight into such tricky topics is former Wallabies prop and co-founder of Gain Line Analytics, Ben Darwin, who on this week’s episode of the Aotearoa Rugby Pod shared his views as to how a team like the All Blacks can retain its cohesion midway through this World Cup cycle.
“There’s three components to it,” commented Darwin. “One is the daily team, or the weekly team that plays every game. Then there’s the changes you make in between the seasons and then there’s the system as a whole. The smaller the system, the more aligned the system, the easier it’s going to be.”
Darwin was quick to comment on the stark effects that major changes in system and structure can have on teams, even those as familiar with each other as the All Blacks. “You could have a bunch of players that have played together for a long time but if you say ‘Right, now we’re going to shift from man-on-man to zone defence’, that understanding they have together actually starts to work against them and they struggle.”
Certainly, given the recent calls from pundits and ex-players alike to scrap the ‘dual playmaker’ model utilized under both Hansen and Foster since 2018, such insight may perhaps be cause to be wary of any dramatic change to the All Blacks’ current attacking format.
With Gain Line’s analysis, Darwin also highlighted some of the key trends in previous World Cup winners and top performers, even the aforementioned ‘anomaly’ of Erasmus’ South Africa in 2019.
A South African scribe has warned the British and Irish Lions not to write the Springboks off following the return of key players and a rise in form of numerous others. #LionsRugby #Lions2021 https://t.co/Yi8BCxZjKr
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) May 25, 2021
“There’s fundamentally three ways to win a World Cup,” Darwin commented, “You can either be together for a long time as a test team like England – they needed about eight years. You can choose from a singular club like [Michael] Cheika did with the Waratahs in 2015. Or you can be unbelievably consistent in the two years coming up to the World Cup.
“Everyone who has won that tournament has done one or two or three of those things, and New Zealand didn’t quite do that in the last tournament. Erasmus came in and he did two things. The team he basically started with eighteen months out was the team he finished with. It was unbelievably similar and he took 24 former or current Stormers players with him…so they were able to put that together pretty quickly and it worked pretty well.”
It was the second of these three points that Darwin saw as particularly relevant to the current All Blacks squad, the former Wallaby identifying the recent trend away from alignment with an individual club as a means to ensure cohesion at international level. “There used to tend to be more of a Crusaders forward-pack, Hurricanes backline” said Darwin, commenting on how familiarity with clubmates in certain positions provided results at international level.
“If you look at the career of [Ma’a] Nonu with and without Conrad Smith, that’s such a great example of someone playing well with somebody and not being able to play as well when he was in the Highlanders or the Blues.”
The familiarity alluded to by Darwin was certainly a theme in the All Blacks’ 2015 World Cup success with nearly half of the forwards contingent in that squad playing their rugby in Christchurch and nearly half of the backs playing out of Wellington.
Such talk of cohesion deriving from an already tight and successful club unit related closely to arguably the toughest selection contest in the All Blacks squad at present – the loose forwards. Picking up on Darwin’s analysis, ex-Blues hooker James Parsons was intrigued by the possibility of solving such a selection headache by taking a more holistic approach.
“Its made me think a lot more about selection not based on individual form, but about the cohesive selection as well,” commented Parsons. “So often I just look at the individual form and think to pick who’s playing well rather than thinking what’s actually going to gel together, what’s best for the All Blacks.”
All Blacks great Sir John Kirwan has revealed he has deep concerns about New Zealand's upcoming test matches against Tonga and Fiji in July. #AllBlacks https://t.co/ANewm5E41f
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) May 25, 2021
Whilst cherry-picking a cohesive unit might see the likes of Dalton Papalii, Shannon Frizell and Ardie Savea miss out on a starting place, opting for a champion Crusaders back three isn’t the worst option in the world to have, considering the recent form of Ethan Blackadder and Cullen Grace.
“Blackadder comes into it now because of his versatility at 6, 7 and 8,” said Parsons. “He’s starting to show he’s a lineout option, he’s great around the breakdown, he’s good in the carry, he’s a bigger body on defence, we know he’s got a link game so he’s right into the conversation…I think even Cullen Grace probably played his best game for a long time on the weekend, he was back to the form that got him into the All Blacks, so he comes back into the reckoning as well.”
Perhaps Darwin summed it up best in saying “What you want is to build a system where you’re automatically making really easy decisions. You either play with the guy who you played club with, or you play with the guy you’ve already played 40 tests with. But that requires a whole bunch of things to be in place in order to let you do it.”
Listen to the latest episode of the Aotearoa Rugby Pod below:
Comments on RugbyPass
Ardie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. There’s no debate.
1 Go to commentsThere’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to commentsSimple reason for wanting him back. Robertson wants him as captain. Otherwise he wouldn’t be bothering chasing him. Not enough reason to come back just to mentor.
10 Go to commentsI had not considered this topic like this at all, brilliant read. I had been looking at his record at the Waratahs and thought it odd the Crusaders appointed him, then couple that with all that experience and talent departing and boom. They’ve got some great talent developing though, and in all honesty I don’t think anyone would be over confident taking them on in a playoff match, no matter how poor the first half of their season was. I think they can pull a game out of their ass when it counts.
2 Go to commentsNot a bad list but not Porecki and not Donaldson. Not because they are Tahs, or Ex Tahs, they are just not good enough. Edmed should be ahead. Far more potential. Wilson should be 8 and Valentini 6. Wilson needs to be told by his father and his coach, stop bloody running in to brick wall defence. You’re not playing under the genius Thorn any more. He’s a fantastic angle runner. The young new 8 from the Brumbies looks really good too. The Lonegrans are just too small for international rugby as is Paisami, as is Hamish Stewart at 12. Both great at Super Rugby level. Stewart could have been a great 10 if not for Brad Thorn. Uru should be there and so should Tupou. Tupou just needs good Australian coaching which he hasn’t been getting. I don’t think Schmidt will excite him.
3 Go to commentsIf he wants to come back then he should. He will be a major asset to the younger locks and could easily be played as an impact player off the bench coming on in the last 30. He is fit, strong and capable and has all the experience to make up for any loss in physical prowess. He could also be brought back with a view to coaching within the structures one day. Duane Vermeulen played until he was 37 or 38. He is now a roaming coach within the South African coaching structures. He was valuable in the last world cup and has been a major influence on Jasper Wiese and other young players which has helped and accelerated their development and growth. Whitelock could do the exact same thing for NZ
10 Go to commentsBrett Excellent words… finally someone (other than DC) has noted that Hanigan is very hard and very good at doing what Backrow should do… his performance via the Drua sauna was quite daunting for those on the other side… very high tackle count… carries with good end result… constant threat to make a good 20-25 meters with those long legs… providing his mass effectively to crunching the Drua pack… Finally he is returning to quality form… way to much injury time over the last 2 years… smart-strong-competent in his skills… caught every lineout throw aimed at him and delivered clean pass to whoever was down below… and he worked hard for the whole 80 minutes… Ned has to be in the top 5 for backrow honors… He knows what is required as he has been there before…
20 Go to commentsI think Sam Whitelock should not touch a return with a bargepole. He went out on a high, playing in the RWC Final. He would be coming back into a team that will be weaker than last years, and might even be struggling to win games, especially against the Boks. Stay in France, enjoy another year with Pau, playing alongside his brother.
10 Go to commentsRyan Coxon has been very impressive considering he was signed by WF as injury cover whilst Uru has been a standout for QR, surprised neither of those mentioned
3 Go to commentsIt’s the massive value he brings with regard team culture/values, preparation, etc. Can’t buy that. I’m hoping to see the young locks get their chance in the big games though.
10 Go to commentsAll good, Gregor, except that you neglected to mention Sam Darry amongst that talented pool of locks. In fact, given Hannah’s inexperience and the fact that Holland won’t be eligible until next year, Lord and Darry might be the frontrunners this year, to join Barrett, Tuipoluto, Va’ii and possibly Whitelock. In fact there might be room for all of them if Barrett played 6 (like Ollie Chessum).
10 Go to commentsHis value is stabilizing the ship 20 - 40 minutes out from the final whistle plus his valuable experience to the underlings coming through.
10 Go to commentsWhat is criminal is she acts like it's no problem her actions have have cause the Italian player to lose her playing career, lose salary, if she did this in day to day life she would be in jail, she is a complete thug!!!
3 Go to commentsCorrect me if i’m wrong but the sadas have to win all games running into the finals yeh nah?
1 Go to commentsDon’t like Diamond but the maul is a joke, the sight of a choke tackle creating a maul then players in offside positions flopping on it killing the ball but then getting the put in? Banal.
3 Go to commentsHopefully Tabai Matson returns to Crusaders as head coach next season.
1 Go to commentsstorm in a teacup really. Penalty only so play on as the try was scored. Now the real question is: why was Maitland allowed to pass the ball off the floor? That is illegal but refs never pick it up.
1 Go to comments