The most radical change to All Blacks' rugby this World Cup cycle under Steve Hansen
There is a firm belief among some World Cup teams that this year’s tournament won’t be decided by tries. Springboks coach Rassie Erasmus went on record earlier this year to explain his thinking.
“World Cups have never been won by eight tries,” he said.
“It’s always been high-pressure games and the end of the game it’s a penalty here or a drop goal there.”
Under Erasmus, the Springboks have transitioned towards a tactical kicking game lead by Faf de Klerk while using the boot of Handre Pollard to keep the scoreboard ticking over. The changes have worked, with South Africa now considered a genuine contender to capture their third World Cup title.
This year’s Six Nations champions, Wales, ground out a Grand Slam on the back of just 10 tries across five games, relying on defence and clutch goal kicking to win tight games.
The All Blacks, long the pioneers of attacking rugby, are well known to favour scoring tries. This hasn’t changed much. What has changed, though, is just how devalued the penalty goal has become to them since the last World Cup.
In this World Cup cycle (2016-2019), the number of penalty goals scored by the All Blacks has dropped a whopping 59.9%. The proceeding cycle (2012-2015) saw a modest decline of 6.0% and the previous two before that saw rising numbers.
It’s safe to say that this cycle has shifted All Blacks test rugby into a different age of high-octane, all-out attack.
World Cup Cycle | Penalty goals scored | Penalties per game | % Change |
2016-2019 | 52 | 1.06 | -59.93 |
2012-2015 | 143 | 2.65 | -6.03 |
2008-2011 | 155 | 2.82 | 0.95 |
2004-2007 | 134 | 2.79 | 15.25 |
2000-2003 | 109 | 2.42 |
At the same time, the All Blacks have already bettered the try count of every World Cup cycle with nearly the whole calendar year to spare.
On a per-game basis, they haven’t bettered the 5.03 tries per game achieved in the 2000-2003 cycle, but are certainly scoring more than the last two cycles leading to back-to-back World Cups.
World Cup Cycle | Tries | Tries per game | % Change |
2016-2019 | 228 | 4.65 | 20.22 |
2012-2015 | 209 | 3.87 | 6.44 |
2008-2011 | 200 | 3.64 | -20.30 |
2004-2007 | 219 | 4.56 | -9.15 |
2000-2003 | 226 | 5.02 |
It is widely accepted that defensive systems across the world have improved dramatically over this last cycle, at a time when the All Blacks are scoring 20% more tries.
One theory that explains both numbers heading in opposite directions is that in order to increase the number of tries they can score they have traded kickable threes in exchange for more possessions inside the opposition 22.
Weaker opposition may also explain the lack of penalty goals, as well as certain game situations. When ahead by multiple scores, the need to kick threes diminishes. Against the Wallabies, they have had a number of games with significant leads by halftime.
Subsequently, the number of penalties kicked against the Wallabies shows an even greater drop-off, falling by 77%. Just eight penalties have been kicked over against them over the last three years.
World Cup Cycle | Penalties scored vs. Australia | Penalties per game | % Change |
2016-2019 | 8 | 0.89 | -76.81 |
2012-2015 | 46 | 3.83 | 33.72 |
2008-2011 | 43 | 2.87 | -19.38 |
2004-2007 | 32 | 3.56 | 33.33 |
2000-2003 | 24 | 2.67 |
The fall of Australia and South Africa down the world rankings and Argentina’s ongoing development has left the All Blacks without significant Southern Hemisphere competition until Erasmus’ Springboks revival, which could be one reason for a lack of penalty goals over this period.
Whether the lack of strength in the competition is the catalyst for a more aggressive approach is unclear. It could be the chicken or egg scenario, but clearly, the preference has been for more try-scoring opportunities.
Surprisingly, what has not worked is the rare occasions the All Blacks have respected the opponent enough to take penalty shots at goal as a first resort, and in the last six months, we have seen an alarming change towards taking shots at goal.
They have reverted back to a conservative approach against the stiffer competition on the end of year tour – and it has lead to losses and severely tight games.
Against the British & Irish Lions in the second test and third tests, and Ireland in Dublin last November taking a three-first approach failed. Against the Springboks in Wellington two weeks ago, taking the points on offer at every chance also led to a draw.
An interesting dynamic at play is the opportunity cost of taking three, forgoing the opportunity to attack from deep inside the opposition 22.
Looking back at the Lions’ series, in horrendous conditions and playing with 14-men for 55-minutes in the second test, the All Blacks took every opportunity to kick for goal.
After receiving a red card early and considering the conditions, this could be seen as the right approach but it proved to not be enough as the Lions clawed back an 18-9 deficit to strike with two tries in the last 20 minutes.
From 10 attempts, the All Blacks netted 21 points on seven successful kicks from Beauden Barrett. In the process, 10 possessions from roughly five to 15-metres out were forgone.
The All Blacks didn’t use a penalty once to kick to the corner from inside the Lions half. All eight penalties between the Lions’ 22 and 40-metre line were shots at goal. Two penalties inside the 22 also became shots at goal.
Consequently, in the rain-soaked arm wrestle, they were starved of meaningful possession attacking the Lions’ goal line, with just three entries into the 22, of which only one entry breached the 10.
In order to achieve the same return of 21 points, the All Blacks would need to score tries on just three of those 10 possessions kicked into the corner, a strike rate of just 30 percent, assuming all tries are converted. A strike rate of 40 percent would have likely seen them win the match.
Would the Lions’ goal line defence have been able to deny seven out of the 10 attacking raids from close range?
Defending your own goal line is made more difficult by the fact that only bending the line, not breaking, is required to score. Through a maul or driving through contact, the attacking side can find the try line without the opposition missing a tackle. The All Blacks have one of the best lineouts in the world, and a pack built with Crusaders’ forwards that are used to some of the most complex schemes out there to win clean ball.
Second infringements also become common, allowing sides to test once before eventually settling for three if they please. In the worst-case scenario of turning the ball over, the opposition is forced to exit from their own goal line usually resulting in another lineout 20-30 metres out.
Even with 15 men on the field in the first half, with plenty of time left in the game, the All Blacks opted to kick goals without forcing the Lions to defend a lineout maul from the five.
The All Blacks tried the same approach in Dublin, taking six points in the first half when presented on the doorstep of the 22 instead of testing Ireland’s goal line defence.
With Ireland being a clinical side giving away little possession and few penalties, the All Blacks were again starved of possession to attack inside the 22 throughout the entire match.
The All Blacks received just one opportunity to attack from inside 10 metres in the first half, which was stopped early and turned over by Ireland in the third minute, and only a few more in the second half. Again, with a penalty 40 metres out late in the game, the All Blacks took a shot at goal when already behind by 10 points to narrow the gap to a converted try.
Respecting the opponent is almost becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, enabling the opposition to avoid the hardest place to defend on the field, robbing the All Blacks of the chance to pile on the pressure.
With turnover ball drying up as a source of points against the top Northern Hemisphere sides and now the Springboks (one area they regularly dine on against the error-prone Wallabies), the All Blacks are finding it extremely difficult to create entries into the 22 through other means such as out-and-out line breaks.
Turning down the three isn’t always the best option in late-game scenarios, but when the game is in its early stages, the All Blacks could take more chances to bury the Northern Hemisphere teams early. A 14-point lead would almost certainly go a long way to killing off Wales or England, who aren’t built to play from behind and chase games.
Against the Springboks in the recent 16-all draw, the All Blacks’ first penalty in range was an attempted kick at goal in the 12th minute, which Barrett missed, forgoing a kick to the corner. Their first breach of the Boks’ 22 didn’t come until the 30th minute.
This is the largely the same Bok side that conceded four tries either from or off the rolling maul in the two games last year. Again, early in the second half, Barrett took the points and an extra few metres in the process.
The spotlight shouldn’t be on whether he should be taking a few metres, but on why is he kicking for goal in the first place with a 7-6 lead and half an hour to go. And again they opted to shoot for goal at 10-6 less than five minutes later.
In an era where the All Blacks have shown an undeniable preference for turning down threes in search of tries, why all of a sudden is every available shot being taken against likely World Cup opponents, a strategy which failed against the Lions?
“We want to win the Bledisloe Cup, for sure, and want to win the World Cup. Along the way, we have to make some sacrifices and we may have to take some risks … but hopefully, we’ll get the rewards,” Steve Hansen recently explained.
The All Blacks are taking hardly any risks at all on the field, so we have to assume the risk Hansen is talking about is shelving the regular game plan and potentially sacrificing The Rugby Championship for one year for the greater good of the ultimate goal.
Wallabies captain Michael Hooper ahead of Bledisloe I:
Comments on RugbyPass
Brayden Iose and Peter Lakai are very exciting Super Rugby players but are too short and too light to ever be a Test 8 vs South Africa, France, Ireland, and England, Lakai could potentially be a Test player at 7 if he is allowed to focus on 7 for Hurricanes.
5 Go to commentsPencils “Thomas du Toit” into possible 2027 Bok squad.
1 Go to commentsDon’t see why Harrison makes the bench. Jones can play at 10 if needed, and there is a good case for starting her there to begin with if testing combinations. That would leave room for Sing on the bench
1 Go to commentsWhat a load of old bull!
1 Go to commentsOf the rugby I’ve born witness to in my lifetime - 1990 to date - I recognize great players throughout those years. But I have no doubt the game and the players are on average better today. So I doubt going back further is going to prove me wrong. The technical components of the game, set pieces, scrums, kicks, kicks at goal. And in general tactics employed are far more efficient, accurate and polished. Professional athletes that have invested countless hours on being accurate. There is one nation though that may be fairly competitive in any era - and that for me is the all blacks. And New Zealand players in general. NZ produces startling athletes who have fantastic ball skills. And then the odd phenomenon like Brooke. Lomu. Mcaw. Carter. Better than comparing players and teams across eras - I’ve often had this thought - that it would be very interesting to have a version of the game that is closer to its original form. What would the game look like today if the rules were rolled back. Not rules that promote safety obviously - but rules like: - a try being worth 1 point and conversion 2 points. Hence the term “try”. Earning a try at goals. Would we see more attacking play? - no lifting in the lineouts. - rucks and break down laws in general. They looked like wrestling matches in bygone eras. I wonder what a game applying 1995 rules would look like with modern players. It may be a daft exercise, but it would make for an interesting spectacle celebrating “purer” forms of the game that roll back the rules dramatically by a few versions. Would we come to learn that some of the rules/combinations of the rules we see today have actually made the game less attractive? I’d love to see an exhibition match like that.
29 Go to commentsIrish Rugby CEO be texting Andy Farrell “Andy, i found our next Kiwi Irishman”
5 Go to commentsI certainly don’t miss drinking beers at 8am in the morning watching rugby games being played in NZ.
1 Go to commentsThis looks like a damage limitation exercise for Wales, keeping back some of their more effective players for the last 20/25 minutes to try and counter England’s fresh legs so the Red Roses don’t rack up a big score.
1 Go to commentsVery unlikely the Bulls will beat Leinster in Dublin. It would be different in Pretoria.
1 Go to commentsI think it is a dangerous path to go down to ban a player for the same period that a player they injured takes to recover. Players would be afraid to tackle anyone. I once tackled my best friend at school in a practice match and sprained his ankle. I paid for it by having to play fly-half instead of full-back for the rest of that season’s fixtures.
5 Go to commentsJust such a genuine good bloke…and probably the best all round player in his generation. Good guys do come first sometimes and he handled the W.Cup loss with great attitude.
2 Go to commentsWord in France is that he’s on the radar of a few Top14 clubs.
5 Go to commentsGet blocking Travis, this guy has styles and he’s gonna make a swift impact…!
1 Go to commentsWhat remorse? She claimed that her dangerous tackle wasn’t worthy of a red! She should be compensating the injured player for loss of earnings at the minimum. Her ban should include the recovery time of the injured player as well as the paltry 3 match ban.
5 Go to commentsArdie is a legend. Finished and klaar. Two things: “Yeah, yeah, I have had a few conversations with Razor just around feedback on my game and what I am doing well, what I need to improve on or work-ons. It’s kind of been minimal, mate, but it’s all that I need over here in terms of how to be better, how to get better and what I am doing well.” I hope he’s downplaying it - and that it’s not that “minimal”. The amount of communication and behind the scenes preparation the Bok coaches put into players - Rassie and co would be all over Ardie and being clear on what is expected of him. This stands out for me as something teams should really be looking at in terms of the boks success from a coaching point of view. And was surprised by the comment - “minimal”. In terms of the “debate” around Ireland and South Africa. Nice one Ardie. Indeed. There’s no debate.
2 Go to commentsThere’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to commentsSimple reason for wanting him back. Robertson wants him as captain. Otherwise he wouldn’t be bothering chasing him. Not enough reason to come back just to mentor.
10 Go to comments