The glaringly obvious problem in Scotland's game plan that has to stop
Scotland have had every opportunity under the sun to frequently beat their Home Nations rivals over the last two Six Nations but the same problems keep persisting.
Again, in treacherous conditions at Murrayfield against England, they were there in the contest at 3-all and faded in the last 10 minutes on the back of a critical kick coverage error.
Last week against Ireland, a mountain of possession could only yield four penalties and a losing bonus point in a 7-point loss in Dublin.
In both of these losses, there are similar skeletons buried in the grave, and if you rewind to last year’s tournament you will find they existed then too.
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In particular, red-zone attacking efficiency (points converted from possessions inside the 22) is diabolically low.
Last week in Dublin, Scotland had Ireland on the ropes multiple times in the first half only to be scuttled at the breakdown as CJ Stander, Caelon Dorris and James Ryan forced costly turnovers.
Six entries into Ireland’s 22 in the first half yielded just three points at a measly rate of just 0.5 points per entry. Even worse, at Murrayfield, three entries into England’s 22 in the first half yielded zero points.
The first key problem to this issue is Scotland’s persistent but unproven desire to score tries from lineout mauls.
It cannot be ignored any longer that Scotland’s lineout maul is a massive anchor on their red-zone attack. It is a malfunctioning mess that coughs up crucial possessions and turnovers at the worst times.
Their lineout maul from five metres out was sacked and turned over nearly every time it was used in last year’s Six Nations, leading to many wasted opportunities. If it wasn’t sacked and turned, it was severely disrupted, creating messy ball for any strike or phase play afterward.
Just one pushover try has been scored from a lineout maul from inside 10-metres over the last two and a half Six Nations campaigns, with John Barclay’s try against Italy in 2018 the only success. This is not for a lack of trying as it has been deployed regularly without success.
Against Wales last year at Murrayfield, after two failed maul attempts from the five, the backs were finally released on a third maul in the second half. A slick strike play built around Finn Russell as a playmaker resulted in Darcy Graham scoring in the corner to reduce the deficit to 15-11.
They used a similar play at Twickenham on another majestic Russell pass that again resulted in another try to Darcy Graham in the miraculous comeback.
There are lessons to be learned from the contrasting returns from the two strategies. One has been profitable and the other is seemingly a money-losing machine.
As Storm Ciara worsened in Edinburgh in the 15th minute against England, Scotland turned down a kickable shot at goal to kick to the corner for a lineout.
The resulting lineout maul from the five was sacked and turned by Tom Curry, foiling what turned out to be the easiest chance of the half to score some points.
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Alternatively, when Stuart Hogg was penalised at the other end for holding on down near his own goal line in the 26th minute, England immediately took the shot at goal at the expense of a 5-metre lineout maul that was on offer.
Even with the size advantage up front, England recognized the premium on points the conditions would force and took shots at goal.
With a horrendous track record of converting their maul into points, Scotland turned down a chance for three points so their pack could once again attempt the impossible.
It is at the point now where there is no evidence to suggest that giving Scotland’s pack the ball in the most valuable area of the field to maul is a good idea, and is, in fact, a terrible one.
This year without a playmaker like Finn Russell to lead their attack, they are resorting to using Sam Johnson as a crash option to generate gain line on set-piece platforms and looking to work off the back of that momentum.
In Dublin last week, the closest they come to scoring a try came off a strong Johnson carry before playing back to the short side a few phases later. Hogg’s putdown blunder left the opportunity begging, but it showed the method that best suits Scotland – just use the ball in some way that isn’t a maul.
Preferably, Scotland would work in strike weapons like Huw Jones, who has hardly touched the ball so far, and their best-attacking player and captain, Stuart Hogg. Against goal-line defence, they only need to find weak shoulders to potentially find their way over.
The second pain point regarding converting valuable possessions into points seems to be the tempo of the side when inside the 22, which in the past has ground down to a slow pace as the pack tries to pound the way over.
In the conditions that presented at Murrayfield over the weekend, this is probably not a bad idea. In every other scenario, it has proven to be largely ineffective.
Against Ireland last year at home, the red zone problems became apparent in the first half as wave-after-wave of Scotland’s carry game was repelled. They pounded the goal line and came away with nothing in return on multiple occasions, at one point going over 20 phases before turning over the ball.
Trying to bully the way over with endless carries off 9 just does not work for Scotland.
Often, what gives the side these 22-entries in the first place is a well-worked width game from midfield launch patterns that they actually do very well when they execute. The opening five minutes in Dublin to start this year’s campaign is a testament to that.
But Scotland then go from being super expansive and fast-paced, relatively easily making ground downfield, to becoming narrow and slow and getting nowhere.
If Scotland played to their strengths when knocking on the door more often, you wonder if their key possessions would yield more.
They have lost three games by seven points and another by eight points against the other Home Nations over the last two tournaments. Converting on two or more of these 22-entries would have swung the result in their favour. Yet the strategy has remained steadfast in certain areas despite the evidence piling up that it simply doesn’t work.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over again and expecting different results. Scotland could be institutionalized by this point.
For the love of free-flowing rugby, please, don’t try another maul from five metres out.
Eddie Jones warns against Six Nations expansion:
Comments on RugbyPass
I like this, but ultimately rugby already has enough trophies. Trying to make more games “consequential" might prove to be a fools errand, although this is a less bad idea than some others. Minor quibble with the title of the article; it isn’t very meaningful to say the boks are the unofficial world champions when it would be functionally impossible for the Raeburn trophy not to be held by the world champions. There’s a period of a few months every 4 years when there is no “unofficial” world champion, and the Raeburn trophy is held by the actual world champions.
8 Go to commentsIts a great idea but one that I dont think will have a lot of traction. It will depend on the prestige that they each hold but if you can do that it would be great. When Japan beat the Boks (my team) I was absolutely devestated but I wont deny the great game they played that day. We were outclassed and it was one of the best games of rugby I have seen. Using an idea like this you might just give the the underdog teams more of an opportunity to beat the big teams and I can absolutely see it being a brilliant display of rugby. They beat us because they planned for that game. It was a great moment for Japan. This way we can remove the 4 year wait and give teams something to aim for outside of World Cup years.
8 Go to commentsHi, Dave here. Happy to answer questions 🥰
8 Go to commentsDon’t think that headline is accurate. It’s great to see Aus doing better but I’m not sure they’ve shown much threat to the top of the table. They shouldn’t be inflating wins against the lousy Highlanders and Crusaders either.
3 Go to commentsSuch a shame Roigard and Aumua picked up long term injuries, probably the two form players in the comp. Also, pretty sure Clarke Dermody isn’t their coach. Got it half right though.
3 Go to commentsOh the Aussie media, they never learn. At least Andrew Kellaway is like “Woah, yeah it’s great, but settle down there guys” having endured years of the Aussie media, fans, and often their players getting ahead of themselves only to fall flat on their faces. Have the “We'll win the Bledisloe for sure this year!” headlines started yet? It’s simple to see what’s going on. The Aussie teams are settled, they didn't lose any of their major players overseas. The Crusaders and Chiefs lost key experienced All Blacks, and Razor in the Crusaders case, and clearly neither are anywhere near as strong as last year (The Canes and Blues would probably be 3rd & 4th if they were). The Highlanders are annually average, even more so post-Aaron Smith and a big squad clean out. The two teams at the top? The two nz sides with largely the same settled roster as last year, except Ardie Savea for the Canes. They’ve both got far better coaches now too. If the Aussies are going to win the title, this is the year the kiwi sides will be weakest, so they better take their chance.
3 Go to commentsThe World Cup has to be the gold standard, line in the sand. 113 teams compete for what is the opportunity to make the pool stages, and then the knockout games for the trophy. The concept is sound. This must have been the rationale when the World Cup was created, surely? But I’m all for Looking forward and finding new ways for the SH to dominate the NH into the future. The autumn series needs a change up. Let’s start by having the NH teams come south every odd year for the Autumn/Spring series games?
8 Go to commentsWhat’ll happen when the AI models of the future go back in time and try to destroy the AI models of the past standing in their way of certain victory?
41 Go to commentsThanks, Nick. We (Seanny Maloney, Brett and I) just discussed Charlie as a potential Wallaby No 8, and wondered if he has truly realised how big he is in contact (and whether he can add 5 kg w/o slowing down). Your scouting report confirms our suspicions he has the materiel. No one knows if he has the mentality (as Johann van Graan said this week about CJ, Duane and Alfie B) to carry 10-15 times a game.
57 Go to commentsHe would be a great player for the Stormers, Dobbo should approach the guy.
3 Go to commentsGood article. A few years back when he was playing for the Cheetahs, he was a quiet standout for exactly the seasons stated here. I occasionally get to see his games in the UK, and he has become a more complete player and in many ways like an Irish player. His work ethic is so suitable to the Leinster game. I wonder if Rassie would have him listed somewhere.
3 Go to commentsResults probably skewed by the fact that a few clubs have foreign fly halves in their 30s, but most teams have young English scrum halves. Results also likely to be skewed by the fact that many teams rely on centres and fullbacks to provide depth at 10, whereas they will need to stock a large number of specialist backup 9s.
1 Go to commentsI really get the sense that when all is said and done, the path of least resistance will end up being a merger of Wasps & Worcester that essentially kills the Worcester Warriors brand and sees Wasps permanently playing at Sixways. I’m not saying that’s what should happen or what I want to happen. I just think it’s the easiest rout to take and therefore, will be what happens. Wasps will definitely return to play first, and I suppose it all depends on if they can find support at Sixways. If people turn up and support Wasps in that community, at that ground, I bet they drop the Sevenoaks plan and just remain at Sixways. Under the radar but not totally unrelated, it looks as though London Irish are going to be brought back from the dead by a German consortium and look set to return, likely to the remade Championship. It’s set to have 12 clubs next season with 14 in 2025/26, what do you want to bet those extra 2 are Wasps and London Irish?
3 Go to commentsThe shoulder is a “joint” with multiple bones. You don’t “fracture” a shoulder, you fracture any one or more of the bones that make up a shoulder.
2 Go to commentsOh dear, bones too suspect to continue?
2 Go to commentsBold headline considering the Canes and Blues are 1 and 2 and the Brumbies were soundly beaten by the Chiefs and Blues. Biggest surprise is Rebels 4 Crusaders 12 - no one saw that coming. If Aus are improving that’s great 👍
3 Go to commentsAnna, You are right, we need to have patience whilst the others catch up to England and France. Also it is the PWR that has been the game changer for England. the RFU put money into that initially at the expense of the Red Roses. I was sceptical at first but it has paid off in spades.
1 Go to commentsI think Matt Proctor became a 1 test AB in the same fixture. Cameron is quality and has been great this season, can’t believe’s he only 27. Realistically how would he not be selected for ABs squad this year. Only Dmac is ahead of him as a specialist 10. With Jordan out, it will come down to where and when Beauden Barrett slots back in, and where they want to play Ruben Love. Cameron seems an absolute lock in for the wider squad though. Added benefit of TJ-Cameron-Jordie combination at 9, 10, 11 too.
1 Go to commentsFarcical, to what end would someone want to pay to keep this thing going.
1 Go to commentsHavili, our best 12 by a mile, will be in the squad, if he stays fit. JB is the most overrated AB in the last 50 years.
61 Go to comments