Sexton's absence puts Ireland back in the 2015 territory they vowed would never be repeated
Fresh from their uplifting destruction of Scotland in Yokohama, Ireland now go in search of making it two wins from two when they take on World Cup host nation Japan in Shizuoka on Saturday.
Here, RugbyPass assesses some of the dynamics surrounding the eagerly awaited Pool A encounter against the Japanese who got their own World Cup campaign off to a win over Russia last weekend in Tokyo.
Johnny Sexton’s absence, the Irish losing streak against RWC host nations and the return of the Conor Murray aerial bomb are among the topics highlighted ahead of their second match at the finals.
No Johnny, no drama?
Being without Johnny Sexton isn’t the situation Joe Schmidt would have wanted for this big World Cup match against host nation Japan.
It was December 2015, two months after their Sexton-less capitulation to Argentina in the quarter-finals, when IRFU high-performance boss David Nucifora promised mistakes would be rectified and that Ireland wouldn’t again be winging it in huge RWC games with inexperienced starters like Ian Madigan, who had just five Test starts as a No10 when given the jersey against Los Pumas.
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However, this vow to cement experience into the back-up options if Sexton was ever to be injured again hasn’t gone to plan as Jack Carty has come from nowhere in 2019 to get the nod to take over at No10 from the pained Sexton against the Japanese.
You can partly blame Paddy Jackson getting sacked by the IRFU for this awkward situation that has materialised despite Ireland playing 45 matches since the last World Cup and having ample opportunity to better build their squad depth in the key flyhalf position.
With Schmidt selecting Sexton at No10 in 28 of those games and also handing nine starts to Jackson, there was not a whole lot of exposure left for anyone else to enjoy as the Ireland No10. Carbery was given six starts before his August injury versus Italy, with Ross Byrne and Carty only getting their first starts in the subsequent World Cup warm-ups prior to Japan.
That has left Schmidt caught in a Madigan-type situation which Nucifora insisted nearly four years ago would not be happening again on his watch.
The bad sequence of results against RWC hosts
An Ireland win against a host nation at a World Cup is long overdue. Co-hosts Australia battered the Irish in a Sydney quarter-final in the first finals in 1987, Scotland then dished out a beating at Murrayfield in a 1991 pool match, while France were far too good for a befuddled Irish XV in a 2007 group encounter in Paris.
That rotten run must now stop if Joe Schmidt’s Class of 2019 are to consolidate their grip as favourites to win Pool A. One curiosity surrounding the fixture, though, is how Ireland’s last encounter against the Japanese at Shizuoka has only had a follow-through for a limited number of players.
The two-week 2017 tour to Japan while the British and Irish Lions tour was on in New Zealand was billed as a dry-run for these Japanese finals, but 13 of the matchday 23 from that Ecopa Stadium win failed to get selected in Ireland’s 31-man squad for the World Cup 27 months later.
Simon Zebo and Paddy Jackson were ineligible as they now play their club rugby abroad, Rory Scannell, Devin Toner, Finlay Bealham and Kieran Marmion were in the RWC training squad but missed out on the 31, Quinn Roux, James Tracy, Kieran Treadwell, Jack O’Donoghue, Rory O’Loughlin and Tiernan O’Halloran were overlooked altogether while Dan Leavy was injured.
Garry Ringrose, Keith Earls and Cian Healy are the only three repeat starters from the 50-22 win in Shizuoka, with Luke McGrath and Rhys Ruddock dropping to the bench on this occasion.
With Ireland's matches about to start prior to the Rugby World Cup, Garry Ringrose sets the scene and reflects on his journey from 2015 to now https://t.co/oorB7Z3HmJ
— liam heagney (@heagneyl) August 5, 2019
Murray’s bomb is back in vogue
Warren Gatland certainly isn’t a fan of Ireland’s play, the Wales boss having a dig when his team were choked in the second half of the recent warm-up encounter in Dublin. His view won’t have changed despite the Irish demolition job on Scotland at the World Cup, but no Irish fan will give a fig for what their 1999 World Cup coach thinks.
Ireland go about their business in a certain clinical way under Joe Schmidt and it was no coincidence that Conor Murray’s return to top form came in a match when the Irish kicked the ball from the hand on 39 occasions.
Only Russia on opening night kicked as much in the opening dozen matches at World Cup 2019, Japan kicking 33 times, Tonga 31 and New Zealand 30 before the numbers dip into the 20s and even fall to Australia’s meagre 12 versus Fiji and the Fijians’ tally of just nine kicks versus Uruguay.
Murray’s contestable kicking was a massive weapon during Ireland’s stellar 2018 and it appears as if his bomb is now back in vogue judging by the problems his 14 kicks from the hand caused the Scots, particularly amid the second-half deluge in Yokohama. More of the same in Shizuoka and the Japanese will be very much put on the back foot.
Your team for Saturday's showdown in Shizuoka #RWC19 pic.twitter.com/SOhBSe7THf
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) September 26, 2019
The one area where Ireland lost out to the Scots
The Japanese haven’t been shy in alleging skullduggery at the scrum by Cian Healy. It is purely gamesmanship aimed at planting a seed in the mind of referee Angus Gardner and his team of officials, but Ireland will still be concerned about ensuring they do get the rub of the green.
Joe Schmidt teams are normally well behaved, yet the one black mark from their demolition over Scotland last Sunday was how they came out the wrong side of Wayne Barnes’ penalty count, Ireland conceding seven penalties to Scotland’s six.
It was a curious statistic as Ireland in their nine previous matches in 2019 had never come off worse on the penalty count. They had given up a total of 67 penalties prior to Yokohama, on average seven a match, compared to the oppositions’ total of 89, on average nearly 10 a match. But on this occasion, they were deemed to be the naughtier side.
Lightning strikes twice
Ireland’s lineout has come in for much scrutiny throughout 2019. With just 104 of 124 throws safely secured during their nine matches prior to RWC, their set-piece was running at just an 83 per cent success rate and there were fears that their ten from 15 success rate at Twickenham in August could fester and carry on into the World Cup.
However, Rory Best was as right as rain in Yokohama, his official figure of 12/12 against Scotland giving Ireland their first 100 pert cent return at the lineout since last February’s 11/11 in their previous win over the Scots at Murrayfield.
With the same starting pack now chosen for Shizuoka, there is every confidence last Sunday’s set-piece reliability can now continue against the Japanese and give Ireland a winning platform, especially when it comes to catch and drive opportunities inside the opposition 22.
WATCH: Ireland train ahead of their vital World Cup clash against host nation Japan
Comments on RugbyPass
Bar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
9 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
35 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
2 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
35 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
49 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
35 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
35 Go to commentsI’m a pensioner so I've been around a bit. My opinion of SBW is he is an elite athlete and a great New Zealander and roll model. He has been to the top and knows what he's talking about. To all the negative comments regarding SBW the typical New Zealand way, cut that tall poppy down.
17 Go to commentsI'm not listening to a guy moralise over others when this is the guy who walked out mid season on Canterbury RLFC when he had a contract with them, what a hypocrite. All the Kiwis sticking up for this unprincipled individual because they can't accept justified criticism, he has zero credibility or integrity. Those praising him are a joke.
17 Go to commentsI’d put Finau at 6 instead of Blackadder but that’s the only change I’d make. Can’t wait to see who Razor picks.
35 Go to commentsTamati Williams, Codie Taylor, and Same Cane? Not sure about Hoskins Sotutu at test level. Wasn’t that impressive last season. Need a balance between experience and talent/youth.
35 Go to commentsInteresting insight. Fantastic athlete, and a genuine human being.
17 Go to commentsThey played at night in Suva last weekend and it’s an afternoon game forecast for 19 degrees in Canberra this weekend. Heat change is a non issue.
2 Go to commentsWishing Rosie a speedy recovery
1 Go to commentsObscene that SA haven’t been knocking
1 Go to commentsChances of Blackadder being injured seem too high to give him serious consideration. ABs loosie combination finally looked good with 2 committed to tackling and clearing rucks in the centre and Ardie roaming. Hoskins/Ardie together would force one of them into where they don’t excel and don’t get to use their talent, or require a change in tactics. If we continue to evolve last years systems I would take Papali’i and Finau at 6 and 7 (conceding that Blackadder will be injured) and Ardie at 8.
35 Go to commentsArdie’s preferred position 7? Where do they get these writers from? I've no idea where he's playing in Japan, but the previous two seasons he wore the 7 jersey exactly twice.
18 Go to comments