More questions than answers for Queensland Reds under Thorn - Season Review
After all the goodwill generated by Thorn around re-building culture at Ballymore, no matter what way you look at it, the Reds sit in an all too familiar position with one round remaining.
In each of the seasons since 2014, they have produced 5-win, 4-win, 3-win and 4-win seasons respectively, finishing 13th twice, 15th and 14th. This year they sit in 13th again with 5-wins, where they will likely finish second-to-last. Only the Sunwolves (who beat them 63-28 Tokyo) sit behind them in both the Australian conference and overall ladder.
The final standing for Thorn’s first year as a Super Rugby head coach is really no different to the lean Richard Graham years, which if you ask any Reds fan about will induce painful facial expressions and rising blood pressures. This is a fan base that doesn’t have much patience after being forced to watch their champion team fall apart in a slow, predictive fashion over three years under Graham.
The financial ramifications of mediocrity are starting to hit home for the cash-strapped QRU, who required an advance from Rugby Australia recently to ‘smooth things over’. The crowds have long dispersed in protest, starving the organisation of much-needed gate takings. With over $1 million in salaries also being footed to pay two club rugby players, money is literally being ‘pissed up the wall’ as former ARU CEO Bill Pulver once put it.
One wonders how long the current situation is tenable, with talks of Rugby Australia taking control already circulating, removing the autonomy that Queensland Rugby has.
The direction in which the Reds are heading in is still questionable, and they need on-field performance improvement more than anything. Which is why Thorn could be gone sooner than you think.
Hiring an ex-player as head coach with no proven track record is no guarantee of success. Just ask the Blues about John Kirwan and Tana Umaga, arguably more esteemed players than Thorn. Umaga, who has now been in coaching for a decade, was pushed out at Toulon, came ninth with Counties and in three years at the Blues hasn’t come within any proximity to playoff contention let alone title contention.
Thorn’s ‘culture first’ approach is admirable, but without a diverse supporting cast of assistants to provide what lack of experience can’t, the proof is in the pudding. The Reds are last in tries scored, second-to-last in line breaks, second-to-last in offloading, second worst in points differential. Alarmingly in defence, they are second most in missed tackles. If defence is an attitude thing, this team has the wrong one.
It’s not just the losing, it’s how they are losing – Thorn’s approach has been conservative, much like Graham before him. He removed the team’s main playmaker, installed a young pack, and tried to play a possession game with little risk, again based on using a dominant set-piece to play for penalties. The team has been good at retaining the ball for multiple phases, but not very good at reaping reward from it. The strength has still been the scrum, built on the back of Nick Stiles’ foundation work and the emergence of Taniela Tupou as an excellent tighthead.
Thorn alluded to his game philosophy during his introductory press conference.
‘With a strong set of forwards, you can get a reasonable game going,’ he said.
He is still searching for a ‘reasonable game’ but another year of moulding his young forward pack should see improvement.
The return of Scott Higginbotham last season has been largely successful for the Reds. He is a solid defender, provides leadership to the young pack and has done a reasonable job as captain despite getting sent off rather harshly in Round 1. With another year expected to run on his deal, Higginbotham will be an important piece in bringing to life Thorn’s vision.
The Reds won’t lose too much from the departure of Wallaby lock Kane Douglas who hasn’t lived up to the high expectations when he was brought home on an expensive three-year deal. The 28-year-old has had to deal with multiple injuries and never regained his best form. With promising young locks Angus Blyth, Izack Rodda and Harry Hockings in the stable they will still be well served.
The front-row stocks are headlined by the ever-improving Taniela Tupou. He has expanded his play this season with more carries and dominant scrummaging. The side still needs to find more ways to get Tupou the ball on the edge, where he has proved almost unstoppable this season. His under-utilisation in attack is a poor use of a special talent no other team has.
The decision to bring in veterans such as Ben Lucas, Jono Lance and Aidan Toua hasn’t paid dividends. The side has looked far more threatening with younger players on the field like Moses Sorovi, Tate McDermott and Hamish Stewart, who have more athletic ability. Toua, in particular, has been largely disappointing. A high error rate and poor defence have let down the side.
Despite having youthful athleticism on his side, Hamish Stewart is probably too young to be playing this level. The Reds rightly shielded him from carrying too much responsibility – his 18.4 possessions per eighty minutes are currently the third lowest of any flyhalf. Compare that to others like Bernard Foley (41.8), Damian McKenzie (42.0), Beauden Barrett (33.8), who shoulder much more load. Despite this protection, his turnover rate is sixth worst in the competition by a flyhalf at 5.22%. The Reds risk having a re-run of the ‘Jake McIntyre’ saga all over again.
One the Reds best-attacking players is also one of their biggest issues – Samu Kerevi leads the whole competition with 52 missed tackles. In fact, most of the Reds outside backs are questionable defenders – Eto Nabuli, Aidan Toua, Filipo Daugunu, Jayden Ngamanu, Izaia Perese and Kerevi all have tackle success rates all in the sub-60% range.
This leaky defence has conceded 474 points with one round to go. Should the Sunwolves score 20 points this weekend, it will be more points than any season under Graham or Stiles. Tony McGahan, who coached the Rebels to a -333 points differential last year, was appointed an assistant coach with a defensive background.
The more you look into it, the gloomier it gets for this Reds side.
With dead money tied up in contracts for Quade Cooper, Karmichael Hunt and James Slipper (all whom Thorn has indicated he will not pick), the team has limited resources to make changes. The team will have to get younger next year, with cheap emerging local talent. This could be a blessing in disguise as we have seen youngsters like Petaia and Sorovi provide speed and spark to the side, which this backline needs.
Thorn should be given a second year to prove the Reds can improve, but he needs better help. The Reds need a genuine attack/backs coach and show more intent to use the ball and create space, rather than rely on Kerevi to make a break. How many Kiwi sides trap the ball at the back of the scrum, constantly looking for a penalty? None. The Hurricanes scored 35 points from set-play strike plays against the Blues last weekend, with every set-piece in good field position seen as an opportunity to score. The Reds biggest strength is also their biggest flaw.
Right now, all Thorn has is the culture of losing, the same one he inherited, which must be taking its toll on the players’ psyche. The more the players hear from their coaching staff and the less they see in progress, the faith starts to waiver.
The ‘honeymoon’ period of grace is now over for Thorn. Year two needs to see improvement or his flash-in-a-pan signing will prove to be another failed shortsighted strategy and leave the franchise in the same position he took over in.
Comments on RugbyPass
After their 5/0 start, I had the Crusaders to finish Top 4 only…they lost the plot in Perth but will reload and back themselves vs 4th placed Rebels…
3 Go to commentsBoth nations missed a great opportunity to book a game that would have had a lot of interest from around the world. I understand these games can’t be organised in 5 minutes but they should have found a way to make it happen. I don’t think Wales are ducking anyone but it’s a bad look haha.
3 Go to commentsIt will be fascinating to see the effect that Jo Yapp has. If they can compete with Canada and give BFs a run for their money that will be progress
1 Go to commentsFollowing his dream and putting in the work. Go well young fella!
3 Go to commentsPerhaps filling Twickenham is one of Mitchell’s KPIs. I doubt whether both September matches will be at Twickenham on consecutive weekends. I would take the BF one to a large provincial stadium so as not to give them the advantage and experience of playing at Twickenham before a large crowd prior to the RWC.
2 Go to commentsvery unfortunate for Kitshoff, but big opportunity potentially for Nché to prove he is genuinely the best loosehead in the world, rather than just a specialist finisher. Presuming that if Kitshoff is out, it will also give Steenekamp a chance to come into the 23? Or are others likely to be ahead of him?
1 Go to commentsA long held question in popular culture asks if art imitates life or does the latter influence the former? Over this 6 nations I can ask the same question of the media influencing the thoughts of its audience or vice versa. Nobody wants to see cricket scores in rugby, as a spectacle it is not sustainable. With so many articles about England’s procession and lack of competition it feeds the epicaricacy of many looking for an opportunity to pounce. England are not the first team to dominate nor does it happen only in rugby, think Federer, Nadal, Red Bull or Mercedes, Manchester Utd, Australia in tests and World Cups. Instead of celebrating the achievements why find reasons to falsify it pointing towards larger playing pool, professional for a longer period or mitigate with the lack of growth in other nations. Can we not enjoy it while it is here and know that it won’t last for ever, others coveting what England have will soon take the crown, ask the aforementioned?
6 Go to commentsShame he won’t turn out for the Netherlands now they’re improving. U20s are Euro champs and in the U20 Trophy this year. The senior sides gets better every year too.
3 Go to commentsWill rugbypass tv be showing these games?
1 Go to commentsWell where do you start, the fact that England have a professional domestic league and Ireland’s is fully amatuer, that they have fully seperated professional squads at Fifteens and Sevens (7’s thinly disguised as GB), and Ireland have fully pro Sevens squad who loan some players back to the Semi-Professional Fifteens squad (moved from amateur for only a year or so) for a few games at 6N & RWC’s. The Women’s games is a shambles, and is at risk of killing itself by pushing for professionalism when the market isn’t really there to support it outside one or two countnries..
6 Go to commentsWayne Smith's input didn't have as much impact on the last final as Davison's red card for Thompson. England were 14 points up and flying when that happened.
6 Go to commentsBilly's been playing consistently well for 2 - 3 seasons now and deserves a look in at the top level. Ioane and ALB are still first choice but there needs to be injury cover and succession. His partnership with Jordie gives him first dibs you'd think. Go the Hurricanes.
3 Go to commentsIt’s not up to Wales to support Georgian Rugby. That’s up to International Rugby and Georgia. I sympathise with Georgia’s decent attempt to create this fixture. But for Wales the proposed match up is just a potential stick to beat them with and a potential big psychological blow that young Welsh team doesn’t need. (I’m Irish BTW.)
3 Go to commentsCale certainly looks great in space, but as you say, he has struggled in contact. At 23 years old, turning 24 this year, he should be close to full physical maturity and yet there exists a considerable gap in the power and physicality required for international rugby. Weight doesn’t automatically equate to power and physicality either. Can he go from a player who’s being physically dominated in Super rugby to physically dominating in international rugby in 1 or 2 years? That’s a big ask but he may end up being a late bloomer.
29 Go to commentsIf rugby wants to remain interesting in the AI era then it will need to work on changing the rules. AI will reduce the tactical advantage of smart game plans, will neutralize primary attacking weapons, and will move rugby from a being a game of inches to a game of millimetres. It will be about sheer athleticism and technique,about avoiding mistakes, and about referees. Many fans will find that boring. The answer is to add creative degrees of freedom to the game. The 50-22 is an example. But we can have fun inventing others, like the right to add more players for X minutes per game, or the equivalent of the 2-point conversion in American football, the ability to call a 12-player scrum, etc. Not saying these are great ideas, but making the point that the more of these alternatives you allow, the less AI will be able to lock down high-probability strategies. This is not because AI does not have the compute power, but because it has more choices and has less data, or less-specific data. That will take time and debate, but big, positive and immediate impact could be in the area of ref/TMO assistance. The technology is easily good enough today to detect forward passes, not-straight lineouts, offside at breakdown/scrum/lineout, obstruction, early/late tackles, and a lot of other things. WR should be ultra aggressive in doing this, as it will really help in an area in which the game is really struggling. In the long run there needs to be substantial creativity applied to the rules. Without that AI (along with all of the pro innovations) will turn rugby into a bash fest.
24 Go to commentsSouth Africa rarely play Ireland and France on these tours. Mostly, England, Scotland and Wales. I wonder why
2 Go to commentsIt was a let’s-see-what-you're-made-of type of a game. The Bulls do look good when the opposition allows them to, but Munster shut them down, and they could not find a way through. Jake should be very worried about their chances in the competition.
2 Go to commentsHats off to Fabian for a very impressive journey to date. Is it as ‘uniquely unlikely’ as Rugby Pass suggests, given Anton Segner’s journey at the Blues?
3 Go to commentsSad that this was not confirmed. When administrators talk about expanding the game they evidently don’t include pathways to the top tier of rugby for teams outside of the old boys club. Rugby deserves better, and certainly Georgia does.
3 Go to commentsLions might take him on if they move on Van Rooyen but I doubt he will want to go back, might consider it a step backwards for himself. Sharks would take him on but if Plumtree goes on to win the challenge cup they will keep him on. Also sharks showing some promising signs recently. Stormers and Bulls are stable and Springboks are already filled up. Quality coach though, interesting to see where he ends up
1 Go to comments