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Why Quinn Tupaea could be unlucky omission for test against Wales
A former All Black and a five-time Super Rugby champion have predicted that Quinn Tupaea could be the unlucky omission from the All Blacks team to face Wales in Cardiff this weekend.
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Tupaea has been a standout for the All Blacks in the limited matches he has played for the New Zealand national side this year.
After impressing in his debut against Tonga in July, the 22-year-old midfielder produced a vital turnover penalty that enabled Jordie Barrett to land the match-winning shot at goal against the Springboks in Townsville last month.
He has since followed that up with a solid showing against the USA Eagles in Washington DC last weekend in a performance that has thrust him into the conversation to start at No 12 in major tests on the All Blacks’ end-of-year tour.
Tupaea’s size, strength, ball-carrying prowess and distribution skills has seemingly put David Havili’s status as the team’s first-choice second-five under threat against rush defences the All Blacks are set to encounter against the likes of Wales, Ireland and France.
However, ex-All Blacks hooker James Parsons and Maori All Blacks halfback Bryn Hall believe he could struggle to make this week’s match day squad at the Principality Stadium due to the form and positional versatility of his fellow squad members.
Speaking on the Aotearoa Rugby Pod, Parsons and Hall analysed what shape the All Blacks side could take for the opening match of the European leg of their end-of-year tour.
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They asserted that, regardless of who starts and who is on the bench, Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett will both feature in the match day squad, and that Jordie Barrett is likely to start at fullback.
Parsons and Hall also predicted Havili to start alongside Anton Lienert-Brown in the midfield, with Rieko Ioane to start on the left wing, leaving one of either Mo’unga or Barrett, Damian McKenzie and Tupaea to miss out in the reserves.
Parsons, who played two tests for the All Blacks between 2014 and 2016, said the All Blacks are likely to pick a back three well-equipped to deal with aerial pressure likely to come from the Welsh.
He added that the selection of Ioane in the starting lineup is non-negotiable, and with Havili and Lienert-Brown in the midfield, Ioane is likely to be picked on the left wing.
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Given his ability to cover both wing and centre, Parsons said Ioane’s presence in the starting team then makes it needless to carry a midfield cover on the bench, which he said paves the way for either McKenzie and either Mo’unga or Barrett to start on the pine.
Regardless of how many players Wales are missing ahead of this week’s clash with the All Blacks in Cardiff, the Kiwis aren’t taking the Six Nations champions lightly. #AllBlacks #WALvNZL https://t.co/3Wyobizqhu
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 27, 2021
“I think Rieko has to be in there. If he’s not at centre, you’ve got to find a place for him in that starting XV, so I think he’ll be on the left wing, Anton at 13, and Davey back into 12,” Parsons told the Aotearoa Rugby Pod.
“That’s the key, is Rieko, because he can move to 13, Anton can play 12, there’s no need to carry a midfielder [on the bench]. It’s not about performance, it’s not about skill set, it just doesn’t work for the 23 makeup.”
Hall, who has won three Super Rugby titles and two Super Rugby Aotearoa crowns with the Crusaders, echoed Parsons’ sentiments as he revealed his preferred backline reserves would be made up of the older Barrett brother and McKenzie.
“It’s a tough decision with that bench because we’ve got guys that can play 10 and 15, and Damo had an absolute blinder on the weekend,” Hall told the Aotearoa Rugby Pod.
“My preference, probably what they would do, is they’d probably go Beaudy and Damo on the bench.
“If you have Rieko on the wing, he’s got that ability to cover centre if they do go that way, but then it’s tough on Quinn Tupaea, who’s only put up his hand, coming off the bench in big moments, having that big steal [against the Springboks], he played well against Tonga in his debut and he played an outstanding game on the weekend.
“He’s doing everything he can to put himself in the best position to put himself in the 23 role.”
Parsons agreed with Hall’s prediction that Mo’unga will start ahead of Barrett – who is in line to play his 100th test if picked for the match in the Welsh capital on Sunday [NZT] – due to his ability to play both an attacking and traditional brand of rugby.
“I suppose it’s a different coaching group to when I was involved in the team, but I don’t think you lose your spot from injury,” he said.
“Richie was out of the team due to having a baby, so, potentially, he might come back into 10 and Beaudy slips back to the bench.
It’s not often someone can literally look down their nose at Brodie Retallick ? https://t.co/FY3y0fV9k5
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 26, 2021
“I always find this one so hard because they’re both playing so well. Because they are different players, the style of play and the game plan will be the deciding factor on who starts at 10.
“We know Beaudy’s flat and fast and will want to bring himself into the game, and that creates opportunities for others in and around him.
“Richie can probably go between both styles, which is probably his strength. He can go to that kicking game and running game because he’s got such hot feet.
“I tend to think that he won’t be punished for having to stay at home for the birth of his child, so he might get the 10 jersey back.”
Elsewhere, Hall tipped Will Jordan to edge Sevu Reece for the right wing spot on the back of his performance against the USA.
The 29-year-old was also impressed by the efforts of young lock Tupou Vaa’i in the United States and is eager to see who starts at openside flanker between injury returnees Dalton Papalii and Sam Cane.
“I think it’s going to be a pretty full-strength team, but there are going to be some positions that are tough to call,” Hall said.
“I thought Tupou Vaa’i on the weekend was outstanding. Do you bring back Sam Cane in a starting role? I thought Dalton Papalii was great on the weekend.
” I think the two positions that are going to be interesting to see is Richie and Beaudy, see which direction they go in that, and then between Sevu and Will for that 14 jersey.
“I think Rieko’s going to come in at 11, but Will Jordan, who was outstanding on the weekend, the amount of work he does off the ball.
With fans flocking ban to Principality Stadium, the All Blacks will have a major challenge on their hands this weekend – even if Wales will be missing some key players. #AllBlacks #WALvNZLhttps://t.co/Q4ISSkam1r
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) October 26, 2021
“We talk around [Andrew] Kellaway and what he does for the Wallabies, it’s just amazing to see how much work off the ball Will does. He pops around rovers, he’s always there for chip-and-chases.
“If you see that one when Richie did that chip-and-chase [against the USA], Will was calling that in behind communicating that.
“It’s going to be interesting to see which direction they do go because Sevu, when given his opportunities, has played well, but I think, with Will, what he can do on attack, his ability off the ball, he’s probably deserving of that 14 role.”
Parsons, meanwhile, was similarly dazzled by both Vaa’i and debutant Josh Lord – both of whom he said may start alongside each other in the second row against Italy – as well as young loosehead prop Ethan de Groot against the USA Eagles.
“Tupou Vaa’i, I thought he was big in that first off-the-ruck carry, or giving the tips or the bombs out the back,” Parsons said.
“I thought Ethan de Groot was great, so it was more around increasing your shares as such, if we use that as an analogy, for opportunities against the bigger test nations.
“I just remember from my test debut, it didn’t matter the opposition, you’ve got a lot of excitement, a lot of energy, a lot of expectation when you wear that All Black jersey, but Josh Lord just looked so comfortable and just rolled out there just relaxed.
“I was just like, ‘Man, he has got a great mentality’, and you can see why he’s there at such a young age.”
Comments on RugbyPass
The Springboks tried going down the road of only picking home-based players and it was an unmitigated disaster in 2016 and 2017. Picking overseas-based players has been one of the main reason the Boks have done so well since 2018, not only because of the quality Rassie could call on, but because of the knowledge and experience those players brought into camp from England, France and Japan. With some of the big names playing abroad it also gave younger players in SA the chance to break through at franchise level. Would we have seen the emergence of a Ruan Nortje if RG and Lood were still at the Bulls? Not so sure. I understand why Jake would want to block players leaving since his job depends on good results but it’s an approach that would take Bok rugby back to the bad old days and no South African wants to see that.
8 Go to commentsExeter were thumped by 38 points. And they only had to hop on a train.
34 Go to commentsI am De Groot.
1 Go to commentsHad hoped you might write an article on this game, Nick. It’s a good one. Things have not gone as smoothly for ROG since beating Leinster last year at the Aviva in the CC final. LAR had the Top 14 Final won till Raymond Rhule missed a simple tackle on the excellent Ntamack, and Toulouse reaped the rewards of just staying in the fight till the death. Then the disruption of the RWC this season. LAR have not handled that well, but they were not alone, and we saw Pau heading the Top 14 table at one stage early season. I would think one of the reasons for the poor showing would have to be that the younger players coming through, and the more mature amongst the group outside the top 25/30, are not as strong as would be hoped for. I note that Romain Sazy retired at the end of last season. He had been with LAR since 2010, and was thus one of their foundation players when they were promoted to Top 14. Records show he ended up with 336 games played with LAR. That is some experience, some rock in the team. He has been replaced for the most part by Ultan Dillane. At 30, Dillane is not young, but given the chances, he may be a fair enough replacement for Sazy. But that won’be for more than a few years. I honestly know little of the pathways into the LAR setup from within France. I did read somewhere a couple of years ago that on the way up to Top 14, the club very successfully picked up players from the academies of other French teams who were not offered places by those teams. These guys were often great signings…can’t find the article right now, so can’t name any….but the Tadgh Beirne type players. So all in all, it will be interesting to see where the replacements for all the older players come from. Only Lleyd’s and Rhule from SA currently, both backs. So maybe a few SA forwards ?? By contrast, Leinster have a pretty clear line of good players coming through in the majority of positions. Props maybe a weak spot ? And they are very fleet footed and shrewd in appointing very good coaches. Or maybe it is also true that very good coaches do very well in the Leinster setup. So, Nick, I would fully concurr that “On the evidence of Saturday’s semi-final between the two clubs, the rebuild in the Bay of Biscay is going to take longer than it is on the east coast of Ireland”
11 Go to commentsWhat was the excuse for the other knockout blowouts then? Does the result not prove the Saints were just so much better? Wise call to put your eggs in one basket when you’ve got 2 comps simultaneously finishing.
34 Go to commentsReally hope Kuruvoli and his partner rock the Canes.
1 Go to commentsI wonder what impact Samson has had on their attack, as the team seems less prone to trundle it up the middle, take the tackle and then trundle it up again. I lost faith in the coach last year as the Rebelss looked like a 2nd/3rd rate South African team. I also disliked Gordon standing back, often ignored as the forward battle went on and on. Maybe its our Aussie way of not getting off our A***’s until the enemy is at the gate.
86 Go to commentsThanks for the write up. Great to see the Rebs winning, I am a little interested in how they will go against the remaining kiwi teams, I think they’ve only played Hurricanes and Highlanders but how great to see these players performing!! I also see Parling has a job beyond June 30! A good move by RA? Also how do you fix the Rebels previously scratchy defence?
86 Go to commentsbe smart - go black
13 Go to commentsNext week the Crusaders hopefully have Scott Barrett back. Will be great to have the captain back. Hopefully he will be the All Black captain as well.
12 Go to commentsExciting place to be for the young fella. I expected he was French Polynesian when I saw him included in the France 6N squad (after seeing him in NZs), and therefor be strong grounds we might loose him to rugby down here. Good, in that he is good enough to warrant such a profile, and from a journalism’s fan interaction aspect, to finally get a back ground story on the fella. Hope he has settled into NZ OK and that at least one rugby country will fit with him to help his development, which, if so, he should surely continue for a few years, and then that he can experience France to it’s fullest with a bit more maturity and less reliance on family than you would have at his current age. A good 3 or 4 years before he would be ready for International duty if he wanted to wait. Of course he already sounds good enough to accept a call up, and to cap himself, in the more immediate future (he’d have to be very very good in the case of the ABs), and he’ll get a great taste of that being with the Canes who have a bunch who are just a few years further into their career and looking likely Internationals themselves.
13 Go to commentsI remember towards the end of the original broadcasting deal for Super rugby with Newscorp that there was talk about the competition expanding to improve negotiations for more money - more content, more cash. Professional rugby was still in its infancy then and I held an opposing view that if Super rugby was a truly valuable competition then it should attract more broadcasters to bid for the rights, thereby increasing the value without needing to add more teams and games. Unfortunately since the game turned professional, the tension between club, talent and country has only grown further. I would argue we’re already at a point in time where the present is the future. The only international competitions that matter are 6N, RC and RWC. The inter-hemisphere tours are only developmental for those competitions. The games that increasingly matter more to fans, sponsors and broadcasters are between the clubs. Particularly for European fans, there are multiple competitions to follow your teams fortunes every week. SA is not Europe but competes in a single continental competition, so the travel component will always be an impediment. It was worse in the bloated days of Super rugby when teams traversed between four continents - Africa, America, Asia and Australia. The percentage of players who represent their country is less than 5% of the professional player base, so the sense of sacrifice isn’t as strong a motivation for the rest who are more focused on playing professional rugby and earning as much from their body as they can. Rugby like cricket created the conundrum it’s constantly fighting a losing battle with.
8 Go to commentsOh wow… “But as La Rochelle proved in winning in Cape Town this season, a cross-continental away assignment need not spell the end of days.” La Rochelle actually proved quite the opposite. After traveling to Cape town and back they (back-to-back and current champs) got mercilessly thumped the next week. If travel is not the reason, why else would a full-strength powerhouse like La Rochelle get dumped on their @r$e$ one week later?
34 Go to commentsYou know he can land a winning conversion after the full time siren is up. (Even if it takes two attempts.)
5 Go to commentsA very insightful article from Jake. I would love to know how South African’s feel about their move to Europe. Do you prefer playing in Europe or want to go back to Super Rugby?
8 Go to commentspure fire
1 Go to commentsA very well thought out summary of all the relevant complications…agree with your ”refer the Cricket Test versus 20/20 comparison”. More also definitely doesn't necessarily mean better!
8 Go to commentsMust be something when you are only 19 y.o and both NZ and France want you. Btw he wasn’t the only new caledonian in french U20 as Robin Couly also lived in Noumea until 17. Hope he’s successful wherever he chooses to play.
13 Go to comments“Several key players in the Stade Rochelais squad are in their thirties” South Africans are going to hate the implications of that comment!
11 Go to commentsI know Leinster did a job on La Roche but shortly after HT Leinster were 30-13 ahead of them and at a similar time Toulouse were trailing Exeter. At 60 mins Leinster were 27 ahead but after 67 mins Toulouse were only 19 ahead before Exeter collapsed. That’s heavier scoring by Leinster against the Champions. I think people are looking at Toulouses total a little too much. I also think Northhampton are in with a real chance, albeit I’d put Leinster as favourites. If Leinster make the final I expect them to win by more than ten and with control.
11 Go to comments