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A backfiring All Blacks gamble could pay off handsomely for Wales
Ahead of the All Blacks’ much-anticipated clash with the Springboks on Saturday in Wellington, World Rugby CEO Brett Gosper has shared some very encouraging news for Wales fans.
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Should South Africa win the match by a margin of over 15 points, Wales will become No1 in the world rankings, displacing the All Blacks for the first time since November 2009.
Now the All Blacks still enter this match as slight favourites, but it is not as simple as it was two years ago when they walked over the Springboks 57-0.
Under Rassie Erasmus, South Africa have had a resurgence, winning this same fixture in Wellington last year and losing by the finest of margins at home. South Africa comfortably dispatched Australia last week with what many have described as a ‘B’ team, as their focus has been firmly set on the All Blacks.
What is promising for Wales is that Steve Hansen’s side did not look at their best last weekend against Argentina. They are sometimes slow to get started in their first few fixtures of the season, but the coach has now decided to rest some key players such as Ardie Savea and Sam Cane and has demoted regular scrum-half Aaron Smith to the bench.
https://twitter.com/brettgosper/status/1154741413214601221?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
Hansen is also trialling Beauden Barrett at full-back for the first time since 2013, allowing Richie Mo’unga to play at fly-half. It is a gamble that could pay off handsomely, although it is against red hot opposition.
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Fortunately for the All Blacks, a number of stars return such as Mo’unga, skipper Kieran Read and Sam Whitelock, and more of their Crusaders team-mates after winning the Super Rugby title.
This is by no stretch of the imagination a weak All Blacks team, but they do not seem completely impenetrable, particularly against a Springboks team which is almost at full strength, barring a couple of injuries.
Get ready for an exciting weekend of rugby, kicking off with a massive match between @fijirugby and @JRFURugby. https://t.co/CUx7J19KpU
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) July 25, 2019
This is a titanic fixture, and while the result could go either way, a 15-point margin for the Springboks would require a Herculean effort from Erasmus’ team and the All Blacks to be under par. But it is still a possibility.
The added pressure to this fixture is that this is the last time both teams meet before they face off in the World Cup pool stages.
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Wales could well be richly rewarded for their impressive past 16 months, which has seen them win a Grand Slam, beat South Africa twice, Argentina twice and break their 13-match losing run against Australia on the way to their 14-match unbeaten record.
https://www.instagram.com/p/B0SpKnSIgYF/
With Warren Gatland entering the final months of his time in charge of Wales, as he leaves his post after the World Cup, he would have never imagined that he could take them to the No1 spot when he took charge in 2008.
While this is very close to becoming a reality, he is reliant on the Springboks pulling off an impressive victory.
WATCH: Part one of the two-part RugbyPass documentary on what the fans can expect to experience at the World Cup in Japan
Comments on RugbyPass
We had during the week twilight footy, twilight cricket, tw golf plus there was the athletics club. Then the weekend was rugby 15s plus the net ball, really busy club scene back then but so much has changed and rugby has suffered. And it was all about changing lifestyles.
6 Go to commentsIn the 70s and 80s my club ran 5 Senior sides plus a Vets. Now it is 2 sides with an occasional 3rd team. Players have difficulty getitng to training now, not sure why and the commitment is not there. It seems to me more a problem of people applying themselves and not expecting to turn up and play whenever they want to.
6 Go to commentsROG’s contract is until 2027. The conversation about a successor to Galthie after RWC 2027 may be starting now. We can infer that Galthie’s reign stops then. He is throwing the Irish Coaching Job angle in because he is Irish. The next Irish coach MUST be Leo Cullen. As well as being the best coach available, coaching the vast majority of Irish Internationals week in week out, he has shown incredible skill at recruiting the best coaching staff for the job in hand. That was a failing in France. Cullen is a shrewd guy and if there is a need for foreign coaches underneath him he won’t hesitate. Rightly so. Ireland does need to start to bring Irish coaches through. Not just at the professional level but we need to train coaches to man new pathways for developing kids from schools/clubs up through the divisions.
7 Go to commentsNo Islam says it must rule where it stands Thus it is to be deleted from this planet Earth
18 Go to commentsThis team probably does not beat the ABs sadly Not sure if BPA will be available given his signing for Force but has to enter consideration. Very strong possibility of getting schooled by the AB props. Advantage AB. Rodda/Skelton would be a tasty locking combination - would love to see how they get on. Advantage Wallabies. Backrow a risk of getting out hustled and outmuscled by ABs. Will be interesting to see if the Blues feast on the Reds this weekend the way they did the Brumbies we are in big trouble at the breakdown. Great energy, running and defence but goalkicking/general kicking/passing quality in the halves bothers me enormously. SA may have won the World Cup for a lot of the tournament without a recognised goalkicker but Pollard in the final made a difference IMO. Injuries and retirements leave AB stocks a bit lighter but still stronger. 12 and 13 ABs shade it (Barret > Paisami, Ione = Ikitau, arguably) Interesting clash of styles on the wings - Corey Toole running around Caleb Clark and Caleb running over the top of Toole. Reece vs Koro probably the reverse. Pretty even IMO. 15s Kelleway = Love See advantage to ABs man for man, but we are not obviously getting slaughtered anywhere which makes a nice change. Think talent wise we are pretty even and if our cohesion and teamwork is better than the ABs then its just about doable.
11 Go to commentsCompletely agree. More friday night games would be a hit. RFU to make sure every club has a floodlit pitch. Club opens again Saturday to welcome touch / tag. Minis and youths on Sunday
6 Go to comments1.97m and 105Kg? Proportionately, probably skinnier than me at 1.82 and 82kilos. He won’t survive against the big guys at that weight.
55 Go to commentsThe value he brought to the crusaders as an assistant was equal to what he got out of being there. He reflected not only on the team culture but also the credit he attributed to the rugby community. Such experience shouldn’t be overlooked.
7 Go to commentsGood luck Aussie
11 Go to commentssmith at 9 / mounga 10 / laumape 12 / fainganuku 14
57 Go to commentsBar the injuries, it’s pretty much their top team …
2 Go to commentsDon’t disagree with much of this but it appears you forgot Rodda and Beale, who started at the Force on the weekend.
11 Go to commentsExcept for the injured Zach Gallagher this would be Saders best forward pack for the season. Blackadder needs to stay at 7, for all of Christies tackling he is not dominant and offers very little else. McNicholfullback is maybe a good option, Fihaki not really upto it, there was a reason Burke played there last year. Maybe Havilli to 2nd five McLeod to wing. Need a strong winger on 1 side to compliment Reece
1 Go to commentsTo me TJ is clearly the best 9 in the competition right now but he's also a proven player off the bench, there's few playmaking players who can come off the bench as calm and settled as he is, Beauden can, TJ can and I doubt any of the scrumhalves in contention can, if they want to experiment with new 9s I want him on the bench ready to step in if they crumble under the pressure. The Boks put their best front row on the bench, I'd like to see us take a similar approach, the Hurricanes have been doing similar things with players like Kirifi.
57 Go to commentsROG has better chance to win a WC if he starts training and make himself eligible as a player. He won’t make the Ireland squad but I reckon he may get close with Namibia (needs to improve his Afrikaans) or Portugal. Both sides had 1000:1 odds to win the RWC in 2023 which is an improvement on ROG’s odds of winning a RWC as a coach. Unlike Top 14 teams, national teams can’t go shopping and buy the best players - you work with the available talent pool and turn them into world beaters.
7 Go to commentsthat backline nope that backline is terrible why would you have sevu Reece when he’s not even top 5 wingers in the comp why have Blackadder when there’s better players no Scott barret isn’t an automatic the guy is more of a liability than anything why have him there when you have samipeni who’s far far better
57 Go to commentsAh, good to find you Nick. Agree with everything about Cale. So much to like about his game
55 Go to commentsNot too bad. Questions at 6, lock and HB for me. The ABs will be a lot stronger once Jordan and Roigard return. Also, work needs to be made to secure Frizzell back for next season and maybe also Mo’unga; they’re just wasting time playing in japan
57 Go to commentsOn the title, i wonder for many of those people it is a case something like a belief in working smarter, not harder?
1 Go to commentsForget Sotutu. One of those whose top level is Super Rugby. Id take a punt on Wallace Sititi Finau ahead of Glass body Blackadder.
57 Go to comments