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Where will Warren Gatland touch down in New Zealand?

By Tom Vinicombe
Warren Gatland will have plenty of options should he return to New Zealand. (Photos by Getty Images)

Having been reappointed as head coach of the British & Irish Lions for their tour to South Africa in 2021, Warren Gatland has reaffirmed that he has his sights set on a New Zealand coaching gig in the near future.

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Gatland will take Wales to the World Cup later in the year in his last act as head coach of the team that he has now spent 12 years with. After the global tournament, Gatland will coach the Barbarians against this former side before turning his attention to the upcoming Lions series.

“I’ll focus 100 per cent on the Lions for those 12 months [after the World Cup] and then hopefully have an opportunity to go back to New Zealand and pick up something and then take it from there,” Gatland has said.

Gatland has made it no secret that he wants to coach a Super Rugby side, potentially with an eye to one day coaching his native New Zealand side.

“I would love to be involved with Super Rugby and to challenge myself with that,” he previously told the BBC.

“I want to go back. I have been head coach with Waikato and won a championship there and I want to challenge myself with Super Rugby.”

Waikato won the 2006 NPC with Gatland at the helm. It was a breakout season for the likes of former All Blacks Liam Messam, Brendon Leonard and Richard Kahui.

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Gatland’s success with Wales and the Lions is well-known and New Zealand Rugby will be licking their lips at the chance of having the outspoken ex-hooker on the books.

Where, then, could Warren Gatland take over as head coach?

Chiefs

Gatland’s home province of Waikato seems like the obvious destination for the celebrated former player and coach.

Current coach Colin Cooper comes off contract with the 2012 and 2013 Super Rugby champions at the end of 2020, so an interim would need to take over for the 2021 season if Gatland were to join the franchise at the end of the Lions tour.

The Chiefs have achieved mixed results since Cooper took over. The side managed a quarter-final appearance last year and could do the same this season if they can secure a victory against the Rebels in Melbourne this Friday (other results dependent).

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Whilst the above seems like a reasonable achievement on the face of it, the Chiefs have performed poorly in 2019 and a quarter-final spot will be more a result of the under-performance of the other teams in the competition than on any form the Chiefs have shown. In a tournament where over half the teams qualify for the finals series, a spot in the knockout rounds should be the minimum required for an experienced coach.

Some have suggested that Cooper’s time with the Chiefs could be done after an unimpressive 2019 season – but with few experienced options available immediately from next year, that might not be the wisest move.

The Chiefs’ biggest issue in 2019 has been their woeful defence, which has appeared to lack any system or structure. The 457 points that the side have conceded this season is the most by any Chiefs team in the history of Super Rugby. That deficiency can’t all be attributed to Cooper, with specialist defence coach Neil Barnes also on the books.

Defence is, of course, one of Gatland’s specialities – the rush defence utilised by Gatland’s charges during the mid-2000’s snuffed many an attack from the opposition. In this year’s Six Nations, Wales conceded a mere 65 points – 35 fewer than the next best side.

Returning to the Waikato region will likely be Gatland’s first choice, given his ties to the province.

Crusaders

The Crusaders are yet to appoint a coach who was had not already spent plenty of time in the franchise surroundings, but they would likely jump at the chance to bring in an experienced campaigner like Gatland.

Current coach Scott Robertson has taken the Crusaders of the 2010’s from also-rans to perennial champions and will likely achieve a third title in as many years in the coming weeks.

Robertson’s contract will conclude once this season ends and if he were to seek an extension then he would be snapped up in a heartbeat. The expectation, however, is that that Robertson has higher aspirations than Super Rugby and will be looking for a position in the All Blacks set up.

Current New Zealand assistant Ian Foster is probably the favourite to take over from Steve Hansen after the World Cup, given the succession system that has been popular in recent times – but a poor result could see a new direction sought. Robertson would appeal as the obvious candidate to step up. Steve Tew’s recent decision to stand down as CEO of New Zealand Rugby could also work in Robertson’s favour.

Whatever the outcome of the All Blacks’ coaching decision, Robertson will likely want to be involved in international rugby one way or another. Whether that’s as an assistant with New Zealand or as a head coach elsewhere is anyone’s guess.

Regardless of the various permutations, there’s a very slim chance that Robertson will still be coaching the Crusaders in 2021.

Gatland’s hard-nosed approach would likely appeal to the Crusaders, who build their game on forward dominance. The major obstacle for Gatland taking over is that a new coach will likely be needed from next year – which will be two years too early for Gatland. If the Crusaders appoint someone in the meantime, are they likely to be content with a two-year deal?

Blues

That brings us to the poisoned chalice that is the Blues head coaching role.

The Blues have employed the equal most head coaches of any New Zealand Super Rugby franchise, for good reason.

The Blues have underperformed for the last 15 years and a number of attempts have been made to improve the team’s performance from the grassroots up. No doubt there are issues with the set-up in Auckland – but regardless of the problems, the Blues have had good enough squads over the last decade and a half to achieve considerably more than they have.

One major difference that Gatland would have over the previous Blues coaches is copious experience. The previous four coaches, Leon MacDonald, Tana Umaga, Pat Lam and John Kirwan were all appointed on the back of work they did for, frankly, lesser teams. MacDonald, Umaga and Lam all cut their teeth with provincial sides while Kirwan was head coach at Japan.

Whilst appointing young coaches isn’t necessarily a bad thing (in fact, it’s a natural step up and fair reward for developing coaches), the expectations and hopes thrust upon the head coach of New Zealand’s first Super Rugby champions may require someone with a bit more savvy.

Other opportunities

The Highlanders are well equipped in the coaching stakes with Aaron Mauger and Tony Brown both on the books from next year. Mauger has already spent time overseas and will likely be looking to earn his stripes in New Zealand for a number of years while Brown is a prodigious talent and appeals as a long-term candidate for an All Blacks role.

The Hurricanes are the only team in New Zealand whose head coach actually comes off contract at the end of 2021. The Hurricanes probably wouldn’t be as enticing to Gatland compared to other franchises, however, as they don’t have the pedigree of the Crusaders, the home appeal of the Chiefs or the opportunity to redeem a former superpower that comes with the role at the Blues.

If there aren’t any opportunities available at Super Rugby level then Gatland may be asked to bide his time in a different role for New Zealand. Couple a behind-the-scenes role with a coaching position for the likes of Waikato or the New Zealand Under 20s and it might be possible to lock Gatland down for the future.

The chances of an international coach of Gatland’s chops actually stepping down into a provincial role may be a tough ask, however, and the smallest carrot that could entice Gatland home might just be a Super Rugby role.

While there may be few obvious open opportunities for Gatland in New Zealand come 2022, the country would be stupid not to try fit the elder statesman into their systems somewhere. Gatland has proven himself at all levels of the game and with so many experienced campaigners heading overseas to man teams in Europe and Japan, bringing home a coach of Gatland’s calibre would be an excellent coup for New Zealand Rugby.

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J
Jon 1 hours ago
Jake White: Are modern rugby players actually better?

This is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?

34 Go to comments
j
john 4 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

But here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.

15 Go to comments
A
Adrian 6 hours ago
Will the Crusaders' decline spark a slow death for New Zealand rugby?

Thanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause

15 Go to comments
T
Trevor 9 hours ago
Will forgotten Wallabies fit the Joe Schmidt model?

Thanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.

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