How the All Blacks and Springboks will try to beat each other in World Cup opener
Hi guys and welcome to my first Rugby World Cup article that I will be doing with the wonderful people at Rugby Analytics. They have a different perspective on match data so I look forward to bringing you some interesting stories, even if it is with a South African slant!
Let us start with a preview of the Springboks versus the All Blacks because it is THE match of the weekend. But it is also a story about modern rugby. We live in a world where defence is king and teams are trying to find a way to break that down, and nowhere do we see this playing out more clearly than between these two teams.
The Springboks
Let us start by looking at what the Springboks do on defence. It is fair to say that they possibly they the most aggressive defence of all teams at the moment. Their wings do not sit back and wait like in the old days, they come up and join the front line defence early and then they are involved in trying to kill moves before the ball goes wide.
This is not unique to the Boks but they possibly the most aggressive at doing this. Added to that we often see Faf de Klerk also defending in the front line and shooting up, although this is not a “system” in the sense that it is expected of whoever is playing 9, it is more a strength of de Klerk and the coaches have let him off the leash to make the call if it is on.
But the real aggression comes in what the Springboks are trying to achieve. They do not want you to have any time to think, breath, or play any rugby at all. The Boks prioritise getting up into the opposition lines above all else, and to achieve this they do two things:
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Firstly, they do not really make “reads”. They do not wait to make a decision about what to do, they just GO. It is not really a “situation-dependant” system. Because they do not wait to make a read, they win a crucial second to get that much closer to the opposition the moment the ball come out of the ruck. And believe me a defender can cover a lot of ground in one second.
The other thing the Springboks do is to contest often at opposition breakdowns. They want to slow down the opponent’s ball because that gives their defenders time to get set for a rush. It is a crucial part of the Springbok plan. They just need to slow the ball by a second or two so that they have time to mirror the width of the attack and be in a position to shoot. This also has the effect of forcing the attack to send players to protect the rucks, so thinning their numbers.
How much do the Springboks contest rucks? Rugby Analytics tells us that against the All Blacks in Wellington they contested an incredible 80 percent of rucks. In this day and age that is an unheard of number. In essence it mean that at almost every tackle point the Springboks sent at least one extra player to the breakdown. But the thing to remember here is that they do not necessarily want the ball – the priority is purely to see how they can slow down play (counter rucks, hands on ball, etc) so that the defenders outside them can get set to shoot.
This is not something the Springboks do in every game. Against Japan for instance they contested only 47 percent of rucks – which is still a lot – but it is a very interesting trend to keep an eye on. It is a cornerstone of how the Boks like to set up their rush.
Japan put on a show – fans give the opening ceremony to the 2019 Rugby World Cup their seal of approval
https://t.co/MdHs27UGFY— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) September 20, 2019
If we take all these things together it is clearly a high risk/high reward approach. The Boks have disrupted elite attacks like New Zealand and England but we’ve also seen them concede easy tries around the edge when players get their timing or targets wrong. And by having numbers at the breakdown they sometimes lose width.
But every defence has a compromise somewhere, and the choice the Springboks have made is to just maximise “offensive defence” and then be willing to pay the price. That is why “missed tackle” stats are perhaps not always relevant with the Springboks. With such aggressive line speed you will always miss tackles – they go hand in hand. But in this system even just disrupting the attack (for instance forcing players to pass early) is a good outcome too.
The All Blacks
The Kiwis seem to be in a cycle of change that probably started after the Lions rattled them with big linespeed two years ago. So what we see them doing now, amongst other things, is using attack shapes that try to fight the rush by first splitting the defence. The aim is to set up a ruck in the middle of the field that gives them two sides to attack, with Barrett and Mo’unga as playmakers. This can take the sting out of the rush because defenders have to first fold around the ruck. They can also end up numbers down if they fold incorrectly. Also, with two wide zones to defend on either side of the ruck defenders can become more hesitant. And finally, presented with two options on attack the All Blacks can choose to overload one side to establish an advantage.
In these kinds of situations an outnumbered defence will almost always be more passive and drift, but what’s interesting is that in these kinds of situations the Boks will often rush anyway, even if they’re numbers down. To try and counter the effectiveness of these midfield rucks the Springboks will probably also move their heavy hitters like du Toit a channel or two wider to try and hit the All Blacks’ main carry back and prevent this deadly “split” quick ball.
Another interesting thing about the All Blacks is that they seem to be kicking less than they used to. There was a time when the All Blacks hardly kicked at all, but it was ironically the victorious Springboks of 2009 who made them go back to the drawing board and emerge as a elite offensive kicking outfit. And in Super Rugby it is traditionally New Zealand teams that top the kicking stats.
Japan up and running with a bonus point win over Russia https://t.co/EKDrhKcI4v
— RugbyPass (@RugbyPass) September 20, 2019
But Rugby Analytics tells us that the All Blacks this year are averaging only 11 kicks per match (excluding exit kicks). Compare that to Super Rugby where teams kick on average 20 times per match, or to South Africa who are averaging almost 19 kicks per match this year. In rugby most matches are won by the team that kicks more, but the All Blacks seem to be shifting away from that in search of a new formula.
Taking all this into account, my feeling is that we are seeing a tentative reinvention of the All Blacks style. The rise of offensive defence is probably one big reason, but it could also be that the All Blacks are looking at how much ball teams kick away in modern rugby and that they want to feed off that possession. Kicking less as well as interesting player selections lead me to believe this. The choice of Beauden Barrett at 15 is notable because there is probably no player in the world better fitted for orchestrating counter-attack. He has the tactical awareness to identify space, the speed to take play to where that weakness is, and the skill to bring his team mates into play.
New Zealand seem to be moving towards smaller, more mobile flankers. Sam Cane and Ardie Savea are both powerful and skilled players but most importantly they have the speed to get to breakdowns to protect All Black ball – vital when you are playing possession rugby. It can also explain the axing of veteran prop Owen Franks who is perhaps not mobile enough to get around the field as New Zealand develop their phase play.
I suspect the All Blacks coaching staff hoped to cement this new approach before the World Cup started, but that the draw against the aggressive Springbok defence in Wellington means they’re still not where they want to be. If we look back at that draw we can see why the All Blacks struggled and what they might change for Saturday:
As we’ve already established, the All Blacks hardly threatened the Boks with kicks. They generally kept ball in hand and tried to work the Boks out in phases. The problem is that the more they played with width, the more the Boks could catch them behind the advantage line. Again, the Springboks don’t just have a rush defence, they have an especially aggressive defence, so the wider All Black carries were happily gobbled up the Boks.
Rugby Analytics backs this up by showing that the average All Blacks carry against the Springboks was around 15m from the ruck – relatively wide targets. They attacked Damian de Allende and Lukhanyo Am’s channels – and wider – possibly perceiving weaknesses there, but were often hit early, held up, or driven back. Have a look at the graph below.
Contrasting that with how much narrower New Zealand were against Australia and Argentina, and Rugby Analytics tells us that their average carry in those games was 10m from the ruck, much closer targets of we look at the graphic.
It would make sense for the All Blacks to play narrower against the Springbok rush, where they can develop their carries, build quick ball and wait to exploit slower defence, poor folds, mismatches and numbers-down. But the interesting thing is that I do not know if they have the pack to do this.
By choosing two “6-and-a-half flanks” in Cane and Savea they get work-rate and speed, but they lose a little bit of the hammer blow that a traditional blindside gives you on attack and defence. It will be fascinating to see where the All Blacks set their targets and if they are able to develop their phases closer to the rucks.
That is assuming they play that way at all! Because my money says they going to try and kick the Springboks to pieces. The great weakness of the Bok defence is the space they leave behind them.
I think we will see the All Blacks manipulate the aggressive Springboks and then kick into the space on offer, especially with late kicks after the Boks have moved up. And we will see the rest of the package too: cross kicks, grubber-and-chase through the oncoming rush, chip kicks and of course box kicks onto the wings. The All Blacks have excellent rabbits (chasers) and in a wet game these kind of tactics will be very profitable.
It is something the Springboks will do too, and the match will probably be decided by the team that can execute the best, and who can deal with these tactics the best. Will the Bok pack give them an edge? Is there something completely different either of these teams is hiding? Tomorrow we will find out, and I for one can not wait.
Thank you to Rugby Analytics for the data and to Helene for the language editing and the website. Take care guys, and enjoy the game!
This article first appeared on www.oomrugby.co.za and was republished with permission.
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Comments on RugbyPass
There’s a bit of depth there but realistically Australian players have a long way to go to now catch up. The game is moving on fast and Australia are falling behind. Australian sides still don’t priories the breakdown like they should, it’s a non-negotiable if you want to compete on the international stage. That goes for forwards and backs. The Australian team could have a back row that could make a difference but the problem is they don’t have a tight five that can do the business. Tupou is limited in defence, overweight and unfit and the locks are a long way from international standard. Frost is soft and Salakai-Loto is too small so that means they need a Valentini at 8 who has to do the hard graft so limits the effectiveness of the backrow. Schmidt really needs to get a hard working, tough tight 5 if he wants to get this team firing.
3 Go to commentsSorry Morgan you must have been the “go to for a quote” ex player this week. Its rnd 6 and there is plenty of time to cement a starting 15 and finishing 8 so I have no such concerns.
2 Go to commentsGreat read. I wish you had done this article on the ROAR.
2 Go to commentsThe current AB coaching team is basically the Crusaders so it smacks of wanting their familiar leaders around. This is not a good look for the future of the ABs or the younger players in Super working their way up the player ladder. Razor is touted as innovative, forward looking but his early moves look like insecurity and insular, provincial thinking. He is the AB's coach not the Golden Oldies.
10 Go to commentsSimple reason for wanting him back. Robertson wants him as captain. Otherwise he wouldn’t be bothering chasing him. Not enough reason to come back just to mentor.
10 Go to commentsI had not considered this topic like this at all, brilliant read. I had been looking at his record at the Waratahs and thought it odd the Crusaders appointed him, then couple that with all that experience and talent departing and boom. They’ve got some great talent developing though, and in all honesty I don’t think anyone would be over confident taking them on in a playoff match, no matter how poor the first half of their season was. I think they can pull a game out of their ass when it counts.
2 Go to commentsNot a bad list but not Porecki and not Donaldson. Not because they are Tahs, or Ex Tahs, they are just not good enough. Edmed should be ahead. Far more potential. Wilson should be 8 and Valentini 6. Wilson needs to be told by his father and his coach, stop bloody running in to brick wall defence. You’re not playing under the genius Thorn any more. He’s a fantastic angle runner. The young new 8 from the Brumbies looks really good too. The Lonegrans are just too small for international rugby as is Paisami, as is Hamish Stewart at 12. Both great at Super Rugby level. Stewart could have been a great 10 if not for Brad Thorn. Uru should be there and so should Tupou. Tupou just needs good Australian coaching which he hasn’t been getting. I don’t think Schmidt will excite him.
3 Go to commentsIf he wants to come back then he should. He will be a major asset to the younger locks and could easily be played as an impact player off the bench coming on in the last 30. He is fit, strong and capable and has all the experience to make up for any loss in physical prowess. He could also be brought back with a view to coaching within the structures one day. Duane Vermeulen played until he was 37 or 38. He is now a roaming coach within the South African coaching structures. He was valuable in the last world cup and has been a major influence on Jasper Wiese and other young players which has helped and accelerated their development and growth. Whitelock could do the exact same thing for NZ
10 Go to commentsBrett Excellent words… finally someone (other than DC) has noted that Hanigan is very hard and very good at doing what Backrow should do… his performance via the Drua sauna was quite daunting for those on the other side… very high tackle count… carries with good end result… constant threat to make a good 20-25 meters with those long legs… providing his mass effectively to crunching the Drua pack… Finally he is returning to quality form… way to much injury time over the last 2 years… smart-strong-competent in his skills… caught every lineout throw aimed at him and delivered clean pass to whoever was down below… and he worked hard for the whole 80 minutes… Ned has to be in the top 5 for backrow honors… He knows what is required as he has been there before…
20 Go to commentsI think Sam Whitelock should not touch a return with a bargepole. He went out on a high, playing in the RWC Final. He would be coming back into a team that will be weaker than last years, and might even be struggling to win games, especially against the Boks. Stay in France, enjoy another year with Pau, playing alongside his brother.
10 Go to commentsRyan Coxon has been very impressive considering he was signed by WF as injury cover whilst Uru has been a standout for QR, surprised neither of those mentioned
3 Go to commentsIt’s the massive value he brings with regard team culture/values, preparation, etc. Can’t buy that. I’m hoping to see the young locks get their chance in the big games though.
10 Go to commentsAll good, Gregor, except that you neglected to mention Sam Darry amongst that talented pool of locks. In fact, given Hannah’s inexperience and the fact that Holland won’t be eligible until next year, Lord and Darry might be the frontrunners this year, to join Barrett, Tuipoluto, Va’ii and possibly Whitelock. In fact there might be room for all of them if Barrett played 6 (like Ollie Chessum).
10 Go to commentsHis value is stabilizing the ship 20 - 40 minutes out from the final whistle plus his valuable experience to the underlings coming through.
10 Go to commentsWhat is criminal is she acts like it's no problem her actions have have cause the Italian player to lose her playing career, lose salary, if she did this in day to day life she would be in jail, she is a complete thug!!!
3 Go to commentsCorrect me if i’m wrong but the sadas have to win all games running into the finals yeh nah?
1 Go to commentsDon’t like Diamond but the maul is a joke, the sight of a choke tackle creating a maul then players in offside positions flopping on it killing the ball but then getting the put in? Banal.
3 Go to commentsHopefully Tabai Matson returns to Crusaders as head coach next season.
1 Go to commentsstorm in a teacup really. Penalty only so play on as the try was scored. Now the real question is: why was Maitland allowed to pass the ball off the floor? That is illegal but refs never pick it up.
1 Go to commentsWhen Beauden Barrett signed his contract before the 2023 RWC to play in Japan in 2024, it was NOT part of a sabbatical agreed to with NZRU prior to his signing, as was Ardie Savea and Sam Cane. Barrett changed his mind after the fact and negotiated his return to NZ Rugby and he was given permission to be eligible for All Black selection straight away once he signed a new contract to return to the Blues in 2025. Therefore, why would anyone argue against Whitelock returning to the All Blacks straight away after his season is France is finished if he signs a new contract with NZRU which includes a Super Rugby contract in 2025? If Barrett can, Whitelock should be allowed too.
10 Go to comments