Analysis: What Wales can learn from the All Blacks in order to beat England
What a difference the New Year makes.
England looks to have reclaimed the form that made them back-to-back Six Nations champions in the first two years under Eddie Jones. They look like a fresher, more energetic side that is able to run a power carry game without sacrificing explosiveness, and play a tactical kicking game to control territory.
It appears the training load has been tapered off and the team is playing in optimal physical condition, as opposed to last year where the side looked sluggish.
Wales in Cardiff could be the only thing standing between England and a Grand Slam. Scotland, despite having beaten England last year, hasn’t won at Twickenham since 1983.
So, what do Wales need to do to beat England?
Build three lines of defence
Owen Farrell explained after beating France that they keep kicking in behind ‘because that’s where the space is’ and that they will ‘keep doing it when it’s there’.
If the last two weeks have taught anything, it is that England’s strength is their kicking game after a number of their tries were scored by exploiting undermanned kick coverages.
The first step to beating England is taking away that strength or ‘points pipeline’, and the best way to do that is invest in your backfield. Playing one sweeper and two fullbacks at all times will give you three lines of defence, taking away much of the space in behind.
If you lose on the first kick contest and England regain possession, you still have another fullback back to cover a potential second phase kick. Playing two-deep at all times also makes it difficult for any long kick to find grass.
When England are in their exit zones the open side winger can drop back and split the backfield into thirds by playing three-deep.
The All Blacks gave England plenty of open side space in exit zones when they played in Autumn. Just look how much room is outside Brodie Retallick (4) as Ben Youngs box kicks, leaving Jack Goodhue (13) to cover England’s whole backline.
As McKenzie makes the catch, we can see three men back covering, Damian McKenzie (15), Beauden Barrett (10) and Ben Smith (14).
The All Blacks dared England to run it out of their own 22 the whole game and made sure the backfield had ‘thirds’ coverage in all exit situations.
When England makes their way into your half, the wingers can play high to bolster the front line but you still have two fullbacks deep playing ‘halves’ coverage.
Both sides of the field are covered making it harder to find grass and pin the corners, a tactic that England employs often from 40-metres out.
For contestable aerial kicks, the wingers just need to focus on shielding as they aren’t required to turn and try and regather the kick like most cases when you play with one fullback. They can block to some degree like Rieko Ioane (11) above and re-route traffic away from the contest. They say the kick is only as good as the chase, and in this system, you can ruin the chase.
Seven out of eight high kicks went uncontested in the second half, with England regaining possession on zero kicks kept in play.
On two of McKenzie’s spilled catches, the second fullback insurance policy paid out – Barrett was there to jump on the loose ball. They say that two minds are greater than one so having two fullbacks must also be greater than using one.
England lost the kicking battle against the All Blacks in November, or you could argue at the very least, it was forced into a ‘stalemate’ that didn’t heavily influence the outcome of the match.
If you don’t want to invest numbers in your backfield against England’s kicking game, then good luck to you. You will need a back three with superior kick coverage skills as a unit and deliver to a high level of execution with little room for error. You can reduce the odds by implementing the same system as the All Blacks.
Wales played Gareth Anscombe at fullback last year against England and it was the only game in the tournament he did so. A Wales’ back three of Liam Williams on the wing (playing as a quasi-fullback), Anscombe again at fullback and Biggar at flyhalf can run the same system.
All three of them should be in the backfield for England’s exits while a combination of Williams/Anscombe or Williams/Biggar should play deep when England enters their half.
It won’t completely save Wales from making execution errors but will increase the probability that England won’t score from kicks, and that can be enough to keep the game close. Ireland was only down only by four, 17-13, when England landed the decisive blow in the 65th minute.
Taking away England’s primary means of scoring points is the first step to beating them.
Creating gain line wins through scheme
The addition of new defence coach John Mitchell is currently paying dividends for Eddie Jones.
However, so is the return of the bruising Vunipola brothers and the emergence of a world-class openside in Tom Curry, who looks like he’s put on 7-10kg of size in the last year and has been in great form with Sale.
England’s improved sharpness in game speed, combined with their physical pack is hammering teams behind the gain line in close channels. Curry, Wilson and both Vunipola brothers are dominating these areas.
With England’s big men in close, they were able to fly up and put on a dominant tackle, stopping runners in their tracks and often sending them backward consistently for the whole 80-minutes.
In order to neutralize and take them out of the game, Wales need to play with a few variations up their sleeve.
Ireland’s first phase working back from out wide past the 15-metre line is usually a carry with the middle runner in a three-man pod, see Cian Healy (1) above. Wales base pattern is a 1-3-3-1, using two pods, so they will encounter the same challenge with their ball-carriers as Ireland did, and perhaps run into potentially even more trouble.
One solution to this is to play wider off nine and hit England where no line speed is coming.
By increasing the width of the first pass from the halfback and playing the third option in the pod, the attack can put stress on the 4th defender out from the ruck, a player who usually isn’t bringing any line speed, Kyle Sinckler (3) below.
Play with an ‘empty’ blindside and move the blindside winger (14) back across as a tip option outside the pod, and use the tip pass to hit the disconnection between England’s 3rd and 4th defender.
Wales have a big power winger in George North that would be perfect for this, but will need quick ball from nine and consistency with the long pass from either halfback Gareth Davies or Tomos Williams.
This simple adjustment can scheme Curry and the Vunipola’s dominant tackles out of the game, by playing away from them and having them not tackle at all, whilst at the same time finding a way to manufacture gain line carries to work off for the next few phases.
If you can find the gain line on that first carry, the rest of England’s defence has to retreat and can’t get off the line as quickly.
A good tip pass to wingers like North coming at pace off the third pod runner not only will likely create go forward, it also has the chance to make a clean linebreak itself, especially between two disconnected tight five forwards in a fragmented line.
Alternatively, you can spread ’em out by implementing more two-pass phases through 10. Instead of playing pods off 9, you play them off 10, widening out the distance between the rucks and taking the interior ruck defenders out of the game.
In the Crusaders 2-4-2 pattern, this is just the normal ‘modus operandi’.
We can see from above that from close to 5-metres in from touch, using Mitch Hunt to widen the next pod takes the next ruck to somewhere in midfield, and all of the Highlanders ruck defenders aren’t going to be making any tackles.
Widening the rucks can be done intermittently and however frequent you desire, dependent on how it’s working and whether it is having the impact you want, but is another way to scheme the likes of Vunipola and Curry out.
Taking away two things that are currently working for them, tries from kick pressure and dominant tackling in close, will go a long way to staying in the game against England. There will be a host of other ways to nullify England’s strengths through scheme alone, and Wales have enough of their own talent to cause England some problems.
The team that specifically game plans smartly to take away what England do well, which can be done in multiple ways, will be in with a decent chance to stop England capturing a Grand Slam.
Eddie Jones and Owen Farrell post-match press conference:
Comments on RugbyPass
1. The Chiefs are rudderless without DMac, which enhances his AB chances 2. Chiefs pack are powderpuffs. The hard men arent there anymore 3. They had their golden title chance last yr and wont threaten this yr. Gone in second round of playoffs.
1 Go to commentsHonestly, why did you have to publish such a foolish article the day they play us? 😂
30 Go to comments> They are not standalone entities. They are linked to an amateur association which holds the FFR licence that allows the professional side to compete in the league. That’s a great rule. This looks like the chicken or egg professional scenario. How long is it going to be before the club can break even (if that is even a thing in French rugby)? If the locals aren’t into well it would be good to se them drop to amateur level (is it that far?). Hope they can reset from this level and be more practical, there will be a time when they can rebuild (if France has there setup right).
1 Go to commentsWhat about changing the ball? To something heavier and more pointed that bounces unpredictably. Not this almost round football used these days.
35 Go to commentsThis is the problem with conservative mindsets and phycology, and homogenous sports, everybody wants to be the same, use the i-win template. Athlete wise everyone has to have muscles and work at the gym to make themselves more likely to hold on that one tackle. Do those players even wonder if they are now more likely to be tackled by that player as a result of there “work”? Really though, too many questions, Jake. Is it better Jake? Yes, because you still have that rugby of ole that you talk about. Is it at the highest International level anymore? No, but you go to your club or checkout your representative side and still engage with that ‘beautiful game’. Could you also have a bit of that at the top if coaches encouraged there team to play and incentivized players like Damian McKenzie and Ange Capuozzo? Of course we could. Sadly Rugby doesn’t, or didn’t, really know what direction to go when professionalism came. Things like the state of northern pitches didn’t help. Over the last two or three decades I feel like I’ve been fortunate to have all that Jake wants. There was International quality Super Rugby to adore, then the next level below I could watch club mates, pulling 9 to 5s, take on the countries best in representative rugby. Rugby played with flair and not too much riding on the consequences. It was beautiful. That largely still exists today, but with the world of rugby not quite getting things right, the picture is now being painted in NZ that that level of rugby is not required in the “pathway” to Super Rugby or All Black rugby. You might wonder if NZR is right and the pathway shouldn’t include the ‘amateur’, but let me tell you, even though the NPC might be made up of people still having to pull 9-5s, we know these people still have dreams to get out of that, and aren’t likely to give them. They will be lost. That will put a real strain on the concept of whether “visceral thrill, derring-do and joyful abandon” type rugby will remain under the professional level here in NZ. I think at some point that can be eroded as well. If only wanting the best athlete’s at the top level wasn’t enough to lose that, shutting off the next group, or level, or rugby players from easy access to express and showcase themselves certainly will. That all comes back around to the same question of professionalism in rugby and whether it got things right, and rugby is better now. Maybe the answer is turning into a “no”?
35 Go to commentsWow, didn’t realise there was such apathy to URC in SA, or by Champions Cup teams. Just read Nick’s article on Crusaders, are Sharks a similar circumstance? I think SA rugby has been far more balanced than NZs, no?
2 Go to commentsBut here in Australia we were told Penney was another gun kiwi coach, for the Tahs…….and yet again it turned out the kiwi coach was completely useless. Another con job on Australian rugby. As was Robbie Deans, as was Dave Rennie. Both coaches dumped from NZ and promoted to Australia as our saviour. And the Tahs lap them up knowing they are second rate and knowing that under pressure when their short comings are exposed in Australia as well, that they will fall in below the largest most powerful province and choose second rate Tah players to save their jobs. As they do and exactly as Joe Schmidt will do. Gauranteed. Schmidt was dumped by NZ too. That’s why he went overseas. That why kiwi coaches take jobs in Australia, to try and prove they are not as bad as NZ thought they were. Then when they get found out they try and ingratiate themselves to NZ again by dragging Australian teams down with ridiculous selections and game plans. NZ rugby’s biggest problem is that it can’t yet transition from MCaw Cheatism. They just don’t know how to try and win on your merits. It is still always a contest to see how much cheating you can get away with. Without a cheating genius like McCaw, they are struggling. This I think is why my wise old mate in NZ thinks Robertson will struggle. The Crusaders are the nursery of McCaw Cheatism. Sean Fitzpatrick was probably the father of it. Robertson doesn’t know anything else but other countries have worked it out.
30 Go to commentsIt could be coincidental or prescient that the All Blacks most dominant period under Steve Hansen was when the Crusaders had their least successful period under Todd Blackadder and then the positions reversed when Razor took over the Crusaders.
30 Go to commentsDefinitely sound read everybodyexpects immediate results these days, I don't think any team would travel well at all having lost three of the most important game changers in the game,compiled with the massive injury list they are now carrying, good to see a different more in depth perspective of a coaches history.
3 Go to commentsSinckler is a really big loss for English rugby.
2 Go to commentsThanks Nick The loss of players to OS, injury and retirement is certainly not helping the Crusaders. Ditto the coach. IMO Penny is there to hold the fort and cop the flak until new players and a new coach come through,…and that's understood and accepted by Penny and the Crusaders hierarchy. I think though that what is happening with the Crusaders is an indicator of what is happening with the other NZ SRP teams…..and the other SRP teams for that matter. Not enough money. The money has come via the SR competition and it’s not there anymore. It's in France, Japan and England. Unless or until something is done to make SR more SELLABLE to the NZ/Australia Rugby market AND the world rugby market the $s to keep both the very best players and the next rung down won't be there. They will play away from NZ more and more. I think though that NZ will continue to produce the players and the coaches of sufficient strength for NZ to have the capacity to stay at the top. Whether they do stay at the top as an international team will depend upon whether the money flowing to SRP is somehow restored, or NZ teams play in the Japan comp, or NZ opts to pick from anywhere. As a follower of many sports I’d have to say that the organisation and promotion of Super Rugby has been for the last 20 years closest to the worst I’ve ever seen. This hasn't necessarily been caused by NZ, but it’s happened. Perhaps it can be fixed, perhaps not. The Crusaders are I think a symptom of this, not the cause
30 Go to commentsNo way. If you are trying to picture New Zealand rugby with an All Blacks mindset, there have been two factors instrumental to the decline of NZ rugby to date. Those are the horror that the Blues have become and, probably more so, the fixture that the Crusaders became. I don’t think it was healthy to have one team so dominant for so long, both for lack of proper representation of players from outside that environment and on the over reliance on players from within it. If you are another international side, like Ireland for example, sure. You can copy paste something succinct from one level to the next and experience a huge increase in standards, but ultimately you will not be maximizing it, which is what you need to perform to the level the ABs do. Added to that is the apathy that develops in the whole game as a result of one sides dominance. NZ, Super, and Championship rugby should all experience a boom as a result of things balancing out. That said, there is a lot of bad news happening in NZ rugby recently, and I’m not sure the game can be handled well enough here to postpone the always-there feeling of inevitable decline of rugby.
30 Go to commentsNo SA supporter miss Super Rugby - a product that is experiencing significant head wind in ANZ - the competition from rival codes are intense, match attendance figures are at a historical low and the negativity of commentators such as Kirwan and Wilson have accelerated the downward spiral in NZ. After the next RWC in 2027 sponsors will follow Qantas and start leaving in droves.
2 Go to commentsLike others, I am not seeing the connection between this edition of the Crusaders and the All Blacks future prospects under Razor. I think the analysis of the Crusaders attack recently is helpful because Razor and his coaching team used to be able to slot new guys in to their systems and see them succeed. Several of Razor’s coaches are still there so it would be surprising if the current attack and set piece has been overhauled to a great extent - but based on that analysis, it may have been. Whether it is too many new guys due to injuries or retirement or a failure of current Crusaders systems is the main question to be answered imo. It doesn’t seem relevant for the ABs.
30 Go to commentsharry potter is set in stone. he creates stability and finishes well. exactly what schmidt likes. he’s the ben smith of australian rugby. i think it could quite easily be potter toole and kellaway for the foreseeable future.
5 Go to commentsThis is short sighted from Clayton if you ask me, smacks of too much preseason planning and no adaptability. What if DMac is out for a must win match, are they still only going to bring their best first five and playmaker on late in the game? Trusting the game to someone who wasn’t even part of planning (they would have had Trask pinned in as Jacomb preseason). Perhaps if the Crusaders were better they would not have done this, but either way imo you take this opportunity to play a guy you might need starting in a final rather than having their 12th game getting comfortable coming off the bench.
1 Go to commentsThanks Brett.. At last a positive article on the potential of Wallaby candidates, great to read. Schmidt’s record as an international rugby coach speaks for itself, I’m somewhat confident he will turn the Wallaby’s fortunes around …. on the field. It will be up to others to steady the ship off the paddock. But is there a flaw in my optimism? We have known all along that Australia has the players to be very competitive with their international rivals. We know that because everyone keeps telling us. So why the poor results? A question that requires a definitive answer before the turn around can occur. Joe Schmidt signed on for 2 years, time to encompass the Lions tour of 2025. By all accounts he puts family first and that’s fair enough, but I would wager that his 2 year contract will be extended if the next 18 months or so shows the statement “Australia has the players” proves to be correct. The new coach does not have a lot of time to meld together an outfit that will be competitive in the Rugby Championship - it will be interesting to see what happens. It will be interesting to see what happens with Giteau law, the new Wallaby coach has already verbalised that he would to prefer to select from those who play their rugby in Australia. His first test in charge is in July just over 3 months away .. not a long time. I for one wish him well .. heaven knows Australia needs some positive vibes.
21 Go to commentsWhat a load of bollocks. The author has forgotten to mention the fact that the Crusaders have a huge injury toll with top world class players out. Not to mention the fact that they are obviously in a transition period. No this will not spark a slow death for NZ rugby, but it does mean there will be a new Super Rugby champion. Anyone who knows anything about NZ rugby knows that there is some serious talent here, it just isn’t all at the Crusaders.
30 Go to commentsI wouldn’t spend the time on Nawaqanitawase! No point in having him filling in a jersey when he’s committed to leave Union. Give the jersey to a young prospect who will be here in the future.
5 Go to commentsIt was a pleasure to watch those guys playing with such confidence. That trio can all be infuriating for different reasons and I can see why Jones might have decided against them. No way to justify leaving Ikitau out though. Jorgensen and him were both scheduled to return at the same time. Only one of them plays for Randwick and has a dad who is great mates with the national coach though.
55 Go to comments